Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER SE MEXICO...TIGHTENING THE PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 
FT BY LATE WED NIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N99W TO 11N112W TO 09N117W. 1011 MB LOW 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 08N118W WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION. ITCZ FROM 
08N121W TO 08N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 113W...AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...    

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W 
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA 
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT 
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-113W.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 40N129W TO 30N140W TO 
25N150W IS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...CAUSING TRADE WINDS 
S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO DIMINISH. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 
A MARKED DECREASE IN E-NE WINDS W OF 120W DURING THE PAST 24 
HOURS. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH 
WED AS THE DYING FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF 
N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA WED NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD 
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND 
FRI WITH SEAS 10-12 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL 
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH 
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
MUNDELL


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Apr-2015 09:33:19 UTC