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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230244
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N105W TO 06N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 
94W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 
10N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N W OF 116W. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 
30N115W TO 24N124W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE TROUGH WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N128W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING 
TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 109W. ANOTHER SMALL 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 07N98W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. 

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N142W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. 
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 
31N137W IN 24 HOURS. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
SOME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH 
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT 
INCREASING NW TO N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT OFF 
OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W BY WED 
EVENING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18 
SECONDS...ARE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS RAISING SEAS UP 
TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 112W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH 
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO COVER MOST OF 
THE WATERS W OF 110W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY E OF 120W. LARGE SWELLS 
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 20-22 
SECONDS...WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON WED AND WILL PROPAGATE 
ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS ON THU RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF 
130W AND S OF A LINE FROM 12N130W TO 12N110W TO 3.4S89W. BASED 
ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH 
THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON FRI.

$$ 
FORMOSA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Apr-2014 04:10:08 UTC