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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...PEAKING AROUND 45
KT...AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FURTHER TO A MAX OF
40 KT ON SAT MORNING. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO STORM FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT...AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AT SUNRISE SUN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT SUN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
AT SUNRISE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE N TO NE SWELL OF 8 FT AND GREATER
EXTENDINGBEYOND 800 NM TO THE S AND SW OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG ENE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL THROUGH GAPS AND BAYS
NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE PLUME OF STRONG ENE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 06N935W...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-10 FT.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY SE
OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 25-30 KT WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO EXPAND N TO THE
GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
PROLONGED GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM
PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXTENDING
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT ANDGREATER WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...AND ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM 01N TO 14N
BETWEEN 90W AND 112W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N88W TO 05N119W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF N AND 60 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1029 MB HIGH SE THROUGH 23N120W TO 21N112W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS
THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 120W...AND
20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS REMAIN EXTREMELY ROUGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND ARE STILL RUNNING 8-11 FT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING THESE
STRONG WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL BE SEEN
TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE TIBURON BASIN. NW SWELL
CONTINUESTOMOVE THROUGH THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING SEAS 8-11 FT E OF 120W. THIS SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 5-6 FT SEAS EXPECTED BY
SUN NIGHT. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W
OF 106W. PULSES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W. 

ELSEWHERE E OF 140W...STRONG NE TRADES CONTINUE TONIGHT S OF
THESURFACE RIDGE...GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND
125W. THIS AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK TO 06-15N
W OF 118W BY EARLY MON...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING
NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W
OF 106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON...THEN BEGIN TO
BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON
WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON
TUE NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING