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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220320
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jan 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

High pressure building behind a strong fast moving cold front in 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday will induce gale force 
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning around 0900 UTC 
Monday morning. The high will slide quickly eastward, which will 
allow winds to diminish below gale force by Monday afternoon. 
Please see the latest East Pacific high seas forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for further details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 07N107W to 11N122W to 06N140W. No 
significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of 
unusually large swell will affect most of the forecast area...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong northwest winds and seas of 12-22 ft are affecting waters 
north of 24N. Large northwest swell will continue to propagate 
southeastward, continuing into the deep tropics during the next 
several days. Seas will build to 20 ft off Baja California Norte 
overnight, and the leading edge of high seas will reach Socorro 
Island late Sunday morning. Ridging behind the front will allow 
fresh to locally strong north winds to spread into the southern 
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes late Sunday. Another 
cold front will produce a reinforcing set of large long period 
NW swell, which will maintain seas in the 12 to 20 foot range 
through Tuesday. Strong winds sustaining the swell event will 
diminish by Tuesday as the high weakens, with seas decreasing 
below 12 ft in offshore Mexico waters Wednesday night. However, 
seas of 8 to 10 ft will remain west of 100W through the end of 
the week. High pressure building in behind a strong cold front 
in the Gulf of Mexico will increase the pressure gradient across 
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and cause gap winds to increase to 
gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Monday morning. Please 
see the special features section for more details. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle southeast to east winds will prevail across most 
of the region through Tuesday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft in 
the forecast waters. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama Tuesday night and Wednesday night 
as high pressure passes north of the Caribbean basin.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a cold front approaching southern 
California and high pressure centered near 25N120W supporting 
strong northwesterly winds across northern waters west of 128W. 
A large northwesterly swell event is spreading across the waters 
with 12 ft seas dominating north of 21N and reaching as high as 
26 ft along 30N. Seas of 8 ft or greater extend northwest of a 
line from 22N109W to 17N109W to 04N140W. Large long period swell 
will continue to sweep southeastward with 8 ft seas nearing the 
equator early Monday. Global models continue to show gale force 
winds associated with the cold front moving across the northern 
waters remaining just north of 30N through Sunday night. These 
winds will help to re-enforce the northwest swell with seas of 
18 to 23 ft west of the front where the near gale winds are 
occurring. 

Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with 4-7 
ft seas expected through Monday. NE swell from the Tehuantepec 
high wind event will increase seas to 8-10 ft Monday night. 

$$
Mundell