Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI DEC 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N97W THEN ITCZ TO 
10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 
06N E OF 82W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH N OF 25N ALONG 130W WILL 
MIGRATE E ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH SAT. 1031 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 36N137W WILL FOLLOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH AND SHIFT SE TO 310N130W BY LATE SAT. A 0620 UTC ASCAT 
PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 15N TO 24N W 
OF 125W...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS FARTHER 
SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL SHIFT TO S OF 20N 
W OF 120W BY LATE SAT WITH SEAS REACHING 10 FT. 

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND DEEPENING LOW 
PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED NW TO N 
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA SAT AND SUN BEHIND A TROUGH 
OR WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA. 

FARTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST S OF PANAMA 
WHERE LIGHT SW FLOW IS CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST 
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS 
WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE 
FRONT LIFTS OUT. DENSER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS 
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. SINCE THE PUSH BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT STALLS THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
BE A BRIEF EVENT WITH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT 
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 
GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SAT INTO THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS SUN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT SUN AFTERNOON. 

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONGER GAP WIND 
EVENT IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY 
WED. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN