000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142143
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93.5W from northwest of the 
Galapagos Islands at 01N to 15N near SW Guatemala, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below 
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103.5W from 01N to 16N 
offshore SW Mexico, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby 
convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 121.5W from 02N to 18N, 
moving slowly westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is 
described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 134.5W from 03N to 18N, 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described 
below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure near
northern Colombia at 10N76W to across Costa Rica to 09N85W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N85W to 09N93W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 09N94W to 10.5N103W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 10.5N105W to 10.5N121W, then resumes west of 
a tropical wave from 10N123W to 10N133.5W, then resumes west of 
a tropical wave from 10N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 102W and
109W, and from 09N to 13N between 125W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of 
California as troughing prevails over the Gulf of California 
near the Baja California Peninsula, with gentle SE winds south 
of there. Slight seas are in the Gulf, except higher near the 
entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
offshore waters of Mexico under weak surface ridging. Moderate 
seas prevail across the open waters.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will 
occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri as high pressure 
builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to 
strong Fri night into the weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens further, resulting in building seas to rough there. 
Farther south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico 
through midweek, then returning this weekend. Fresh to locally 
strong S to SE winds will develop and pulse over the northern 
Gulf of California late tonight into early Tue and continue 
through midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert 
Southwest. Moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, except slight in
the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as low pressure prevails near northern Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the 
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the 
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas 
in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and South American 
waters, except locally rough south of the Equator and offshore 
Ecuador.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through late week and into the
weekend as high pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of 
America, building seas to rough at times. Moderate to fresh E 
winds will extend through the outer waters offshore of Guatemala 
and El Salvador through midweek, and then again this weekend. 
Moderate to fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
midweek. A S to SW swell will continue to propagate through the 
South American waters through the middle of this week, promoting 
rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1037 mb high pressure well north-northwest of the discussion 
waters near 44N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
in the belt from 11N to 21N west of 130W, and from 10N to 15N
east of 130W. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere north of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are 
south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W, and moderate 
east of 100W. Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail 
across the waters south of 07N. Moderate seas in mixed swell 
elsewhere, locally rough from 11N to 13N near 140W.

For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and mainly moderate 
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week
as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific, locally fresh to
20N. Mainly moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail south
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell
will propagate through the southern waters promoting rough seas 
south of 08N, through mid-week, then decaying through the end of 
the week. A new N swell will arrive and lead to rough seas north 
of 25N by midweek, decaying by the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky