000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032049
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 08N83W to 08N85W to 11N100W
to 11N105W. The ITCZ extends from 11N105W to 04N130W to beyond
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 04N to 07N between
78W and 83W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge well northwest of the offshore waters
of Mexico continues to dominate the region. Recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate northerly winds persist off Baja California.
Earlier altimeter data indicated combined seas of 8 to 10 ft, 
mainly beyond 90 nm offshore and reaching as far south as almost 
off Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, 
with moderate seas in NW swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds will persist 
off Baja California Norte mainly west of Isla Guadalupe into 
tonight, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off Baja. 
Accompanying large swell well offshore will reach as far south as
Cabo San Lazaro into Sat, then subside. Fresh SW winds will 
pulse across the northern Gulf of California Sat ahead of a weak 
cold front that will move into Baja California Norte Sat then 
dissipate Sun. Large NW swell will accompany the front, reaching 
the offshore waters off Cabo San Lazaro into mid week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Favorable conditions aloft and abundant tropical moisture 
continue to support scattered showers and strong thunderstorms 
over off the Pacific coast of western Panama. Recent 
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds 
over much of the area. Southerly swell continues to generate seas
of 4-6 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will sustain light to
moderate winds and moderate seas through the middle of next week, 
with slightly higher swell off Ecuador through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the 
remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and and lower pressures in southern 
California and the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh N 
winds north of 27N and east of 125W. Moderate to fresh NE-E 
winds are expected in the rest of the basin north of the ITCZ and
west of 130W. Northerly swell support seas of 8-9 ft north of 
the ITCZ to 20N and west of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, winds and seas will start to diminish starting
early Sat as the high pressure north of the area dissipates 
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move south of 
30N late Sat, then gradually weaken as it moves southward across 
the waters north of 24N through Mon. Farther south, southerly 
swell of 8-9 ft will get almost as far north as the equator 
between 110W and 120W through Sun, before subsiding.

$$
Christensen