Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR 
28/0308 UTC SHOWS WIND VECTORS AT 30 KNOTS FROM 15N NORTHWARD 
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR 
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 
SPEEDS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET DURING THE 
TIME OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF THIS GALE-WIND EVENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N75W 07N81W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 77W AND 
78W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 05N84W TO 
03N90W. 

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS 
OF 04N90W. 

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 122W/123W FROM 04N TO 11N. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 03N100W TO 05N109W TO 05N115W TO 06N119W TO 
05N128W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT DIRECTLY IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON 
CYCLONIC CENTER IS REACHING 25N122W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
ALONG 24N138W...TO 28N142W...BEYOND 34N144W. SOME OF THE WIND 
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE IS MERGING WITH THE WIND 
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 120W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. A 
SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N130W 
14N135W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N140W TO 26N134W TO 21N125W. A 
BROAD MIX OF SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 
9 FEET.  THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO LESS THAN 8 FEET 
FEET LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE 
RIDGE ARE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW 
SWELLS ARE REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 
KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE 
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO 
ALONG 22N ON SUN NIGHT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 
KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA . THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT 
LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON 
MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.   

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED 
TO RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN 
AND MON NIGHTS.

.THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH 
NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT. 

$$ 
MT



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Feb-2015 10:01:30 UTC