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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SHARP 
RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SE MEXICO COAST. 
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OF NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WHILE THIS MORNING PULSE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED...20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY 
SATURDAY...WHEN THE EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE PASS 
WILL REPEAT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW. 
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN 
ADDITION...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT 
OF THE N-NE FLOW WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF 
10N95W BY EARLY SATURDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 11N97W TO 1011 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N126W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W...FROM 07N TO 
11N BETWEEN 116W AND 123W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 133W AND 
139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA NEAR 27N130W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO 
NEAR 18N110W. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE 
WATERS W OF 110W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ALSO ARE NOTED E OF 
110W...EXCEPT IN THE DEVELOPING PLUME OF GAP WINDS EMERGING OUT 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS W OF 100W...MIXED WITH 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 10N...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS TO 9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY W OF 110W LATE FRIDAY 
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS SHIFTING EAST 
COVERING THE WATERS S OF 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W. THEREAFTER 
INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE AREA OF SWELL MERGES WITH THE PLUME OF GAP 
WINDS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. 

A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 24/0702 UTC INDICATED THE COLD FRONT 
WAS LOCATED AT THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
FRESH SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY... 
HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW IN WAKE 
OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE NEXT NW 
SWELL TRAIN WILL BUILD SEAS TO 13 FT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE REACHING 
30N123W TO 26N131W BY EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE 1011 MB LOW NEAR 
10N110W AND THE OTHER A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N126W. UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHING W OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION NEAR 
THE LOW PRES AREAS AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 
139W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OF EITHER OF THESE 
LOW PRESSURE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN



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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 09:26:01 UTC