000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240110
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 95W from 03N to 17N including
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving slowly westward at around
5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 
86W and 102W, and from 11N to 16N between 94W and 102W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 121W from 02N to 17N, moving 
slowly westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 08N to 15.5N between 119W and 123W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
across portions of Panama and Costa Rica to 07N107W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N107W to 09N120W, then from 10N121W to 11N125W,
then from 11N128W to 11N137W, then from 11N140W and beyond. 
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 82W, from 09N to 12N 
between 125W and 129W, and from 07N to 13N between 132W and 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is also well north of the ITCZ 
from 19N to 26N between 129W and 140W due to a mid-level trough.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California with a broad and expansive ridge west of 
Baja California. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh winds within 60 nm of the west coast of Baja California,
with gentle to moderate wind elsewhere offshore Mexico, 
including in the Gulf of California. An exception is in the 
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec where N fresh to strong winds are 
present. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the offshore waters in mainly S to
SW swell, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of
the entrance.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong north gap 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu as a 
diurnal surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan 
Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to moderate 
to fresh through Sun, except fresh to strong briefing Fri night.
More pronounced fresh to strong winds may return there early next
week. Moderate to fresh winds west of Baja California are
forecast to increase to fresh to strong Thu evening as the 
pressure gradient tightens, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro,
through the weekend. These winds should diminish by early next
week. Seas may build to around 8 ft there by the start of the 
weekend. Mainly moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. 
Seas will be 4 to 6 ft across the open waters. Seas will be 1 to
3 ft in the Gulf of California through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region
with 4 to 6 ft seas. The fetch of these winds reaches the outer 
half of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, supporting
seas to 6 ft over this area as well. Elsewhere, across the 
remainder Central America offshore waters and the waters between 
Ecuador and The Galapagos, winds are light to gentle with seas of 
4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Heavy showers and tstms are over the 
offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica where 
locally higher winds and seas are likely.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at 
night in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong tonight. Moderate 
to locally fresh winds associated with these gap winds will 
affect the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala 
through Thu, then again possibly early next week. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south of the 
monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will subside 
somewhat across the waters by the end of the week, then build 
back slightly in new S to SW swell this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered well northwest of the discussion area 
with a ridge extending from the high center SSE to around 
23N116W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 121W, 
generating scattered showers and tstms, and tightening the 
pressure gradient, which is leading to the continuation of 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N between 110W and 
130W. Farther west, a pair of surface troughs, one near 127W and
one near 138W are generating heavy showers and tstms as 
described above with fresh to locally strong winds in the 
convection. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed swell from 10N to 20N 
between 115W and 140W. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail, along with 4 to
7 ft seas. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are 
moderate to locally fresh, with seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades with seas of 8 to 9 
ft will linger over the western tropical E Pacific waters through
Sat night as both the surface troughs in the western waters and 
the tropical wave near 121W move westward. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend. Thereafter, some 
gradual development is possible while the system moves generally 
westward at around 10 kt. No major changes in winds and seas 
expected elsewhere through early next week.

$$
Lewitsky