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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME 
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGING ALONG 
EASTERN MEXICO AND BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
COMMENCE FRI EVENING AND WILL THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT 
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10-12 FT DURING THE STRONGEST 
WINDS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 010N84W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 08N122W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N125W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W...AND 
ALSO FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL  
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N144W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N120W 
TO A CREST NEAR 31N138W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE 
UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONE  HAS EARLIER ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 14N TO 20N W OF 
133W...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY DIMINISHING. THE DENSE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS  BEING ADVECTED 
TO THE NE BETWEEN 115-130W...AND FROM 12N TO 24N  AS A BROAD 
UPPER TROUGH PRESSES SWD ALONG  25N AND E OF 131W. THIS MOISTURE 
IS ERODING FROM THE N AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

E OF 107W...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND STABLE UNDER MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THERE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 40N138W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 32N132W TO 24N122W TO  NEAR 17N114W. 
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 114W. A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE TROPICS IS 
RESULTING IN NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 132W 
WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS 
WITH THE 1036 MB HIGH SHIFTING NW AND WEAKENING. IN ABOUT 12 
HRS...SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW TO N SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO INTRUDE THE 
NE PART OF THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. THESE SWELLS 
BUILD TO 8-11 FT BY EARLY FRI N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W-131W...THEN 
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO AROUND  9 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W-122W BY 
EARLY SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON 
SUN NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURGE OF NE 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. THESE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED 
TO  EXPAND WESTWARD SUN INTO MON. 

$$ 
LEWITSKY/AGUIRRE



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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Feb-2015 16:04:43 UTC