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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N92W, then
resumes from 13N110W through a 1010 mb low near 10N122W to
07N128W. ITCZ extends from 07N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 84W and 100W.
Scattered moderate convection within 45 nm of axis west of 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               

High pressure centered N of the area extends a subtropical ridge
over northern half of the forecast area, roughly north of 15N
and west of 115W. A weak low with minimal convection is analyzed
near 10N122W. Satellite imagery shows widely scattered random
convective activity east of 103W between 05N-15N. Scatterometer
data from last night shows an area of fresh NE winds west of
136W between 09N-12N, and moderate trades N of the convergence
zone west of 125W. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere across
the basin. Model guidance shows the low remaining fairly weak
with some development while winds and seas increase around the
low through Sun night in response to a slightly better pressure
gradient. But winds are expected to remain below 22-23 kt and
max seas should only be around 8-9 ft within 150-180 nm of the
low center. Elsewhere, near gale force N-NW winds along the
California coast have produced an area of 7-8 ft N swell in
north-central waters between 120W-130W. Cross-equatorial S-SW
swell will affect the area S of the equator between 105W-120W.
The swell will eventually merge with the area of elevated sea
heights associated with the low near 10N122W to produce a fairly
large area of 6-8 ft seas in south-central waters. Mostly benign
marine conditions are expected to prevail across the remainder
of the forecast area through Tuesday.

$$
Mundell