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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 08N111W. A SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM 04N112W TO 11N112W. THE ITCZ AXIS REACHES FROM
08N116W TO 08N121W TO 05N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N94W TO
05N140W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 08N TO 14N
BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 30-31N IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SEAS IN THIS
AREA ARE HOVERING JUST BELOW 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER INLAND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY SAT. SW FLOW IN THIS AREA COULD
BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT SAT NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

NORTH WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE DIMINISHED...THEN WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT TO NEAR GALE
FORCE AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. THE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT EVENING. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
COULD CAUSE WINDS TO BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG SAT NIGHT.

STRONG E NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO FROM LATE SAT NIGHT UNTIL SUN MORNING.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEAR 30N137W TO 16N108W. STRONG NW
WINDS ARE STILL OBSERVED N OF 30N BETWEEN 123-133W WITH FRESH
NW WINDS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 25N BETWEEN 120-140W. MIXED
NE...SW AND NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11
FT IN THIS AREA. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ WILL RELAX TONIGHT. SEAS
N OF 20N WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN
AFTERNOON. MIXED SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS JUST ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT N OF THE ITCZ GENERALLY BETWEEN 05N AND 20N W OF
120W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W LATE TUE NIGHT...
BUT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A MODERATE S-SW-NW WIND SHIFT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REACH 8 FT ALONG AND S
OF THE EQUATOR W OF 111W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$
MCELROY