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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060944
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 06 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends off the n coast of Costa Rica at
11N86W to 11N94W where it loses identity. The ITCZ is analyzed
from 11N105W to 08N122W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted s of the Gulf of Panama within 75 nm
of 07.5N78.5W, within 90 nm either side of a line from 07N91W to
14N93W, and along the ITCZ within 120 nm either side of a line
from 15N103W to 08N132W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: A trough is expected to develop along 31N
today with moderate se flow expected s of the trough to 29N. The
next cold front is expected to pass across the northern gulf
waters on Wed.  Light and variable winds forecast across the
gulf waters s of 29N through Wed, then becoming northwesterly
behind the front. Fresh nw flow everywhere on Thu except locally
strong winds expected across the central gulf waters.

A ridge will meander across the area from 23N116W to 16N102W
through mid week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
forecast around the ridge as long period nw swell continues to
subside with the highest seas of 5 to 8 ft persisting 120 nm
seaward to the n of 29N through Wed.

A low level trough extends from 17N100W to 13N103W with small
clusters of moderate to locally strong convection occasionally
flaring within 120 nm either side of the trough axis. This
trough will appear intermittently on the surface analysis and
surface prognostic charts through Wed.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh n winds expected
late tonight and again on Wed night. The next strong n surge is
expected to begin late Thu afternoon and gradually strengthen to
minimal gale force Thu night, with the gale conditions
continuing through Sat afternoon. Combined seas are expected to
build to near 18 ft downstream of the gulf waters near
14.5N95.5W on Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal ene winds
are expected late Wed and Thu nights with a strong event
expected on Fri night, and perhaps briefly on Sat night. 

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 4
to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere n of 10N, while light to
moderate sw flow is observed to the s of 10N. Combined seas of 3
to 5 ft, in mixing long-period nw and sw swell, are expected
this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface ridge extends se from 32N132W to 16N102W. The parent
surface high will shift se into the n-central waters near
32N124W on Wed night. This high will strengthen some and block
the eastward advance of a cold front, causing it to stall from
32N137W to 31N140W on Thu. 

Moderate to locally fresh nw to n flow is expected ne of the
ridge this week, except fresh to locally strong breeze forecast
along 32N at 120W. Moderate to locally fresh ne trades currently
s of the ridge are expected to weaken from the n today, then
increase to moderate to locally fresh again on Wed and Thu with
the fresh winds expected just n of the ITCZ. Seas of 7 to 9 ft
in mixing ne winds waves and long period nw swell currently n of
the ITCZ and west of 112W, are expected to gradually subside
from the n today with 5 to 7 ft combined seas forecast across
the entire discussion area on Wed night. 

$$ 
Nelson