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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 261520

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
1605 UTC THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N91W to a 1012 mb
low centered near 10N112W to 08N123W. ITCZ extends from 08N126W
to 09N136W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
within 150 nm south of the trough axis between 82W and 107W,
within 120 nm NE of the low near 10N112W, and outside the
convergence zone from 10N to 13N between 88W and 91W, and from
02N to 06N along the coast of Colombia east of 79W.


High pres well north of the area extends a ridge over northern
waters roughly north of 15N and west of 112W. Scatterometer data
from last night showed fresh NE winds north of the convergence
zone between 122W and 138W, with highest winds to 27 kt within
90 nm west of a trough axis from 12N134W to 07N137W. The trough
has been moving west at about 15 kt and now extends from 12N135W
to 07N138W. Expect the trough with its associated winds and seas
to move west of 140W by Fri morning. Active convection has been
firing primarily between 105W and 120W during the past 24 hours
along the convergence zone, and focused around a weak low center
near 10N112W. Model guidance indicates the low will remain weak
and ill-defined as it drifts west through Fri night, then GFS
shows a slightly better organized low developing near 12N120W on
Sunday. Strong NNW winds along the California coast are expected
to produce an area of N swell that will sweep south of 30N Fri
night and affect north-central waters N of 27N between 120W-130W
through the weekend. Benign marine conditions are expected to
prevail across the remainder of the forecast area through Sun.