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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1705 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION 
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE RANGE OF 
12-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS 
EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE 
AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 04N TO 14N TO 124W. HIGH 
PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES 
RIDGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
UNTIL SAT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN 
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE LATE THU EVENING. HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL 
BE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH FRI EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N89W TO 04N100W TO 08N125W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT THU. ON FRI EVENING 
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 110W WITH AXIS ALONG 126W. A 95 
KT JETSTREAM IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING OVERCAST SKIES 
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 100W N OF 
10N.

$$ 
FORMOSA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jan-2015 21:58:41 UTC