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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

LOW PRES 1006 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N132.5W...OR ABOUT 1390 NM 
ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN   
300 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT 
OF THE LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS WITHIN 510 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND WITHIN 420 NM IN THE 
SE SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE ALSO LIKELY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE    
CONDUCIVE AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                    

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 08N95W TO 05N110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N  
TO 10N E OF 85W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N130W EXTENDS A BROAD 
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 19N...W OF 115W. A WEAK TROUGH IS 
MOVING EASTWARD JUST N OF 30N AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY N OF THE 
AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WAS JUST 
TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE GULF AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AHEAD OF 
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS 
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE 
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.     
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL 
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SNEAK N OF THE EQUATOR 
BY WED BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND 120W THROUGH WED 
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF 
THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY


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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Jul-2015 21:15:23 UTC