407 
AXPZ20 KNHC 251001 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1005 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Corrected to include the Special Features section...

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized 
in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles south of the coast of Guatemala.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system over the 
next few days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward, just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. 
This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during 
the next 48 hours.

Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10.5N83W to low 
pressure 1007 mb near 09N92W to 12N103W to 12.5N115W to 08N131W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N131W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 01N and 
east of 80W, and from 08N to 12N between 112W and 125W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is active from 06N to 11N between 
82W and 89W, from 08.5N to 12.5N between 90.5W and 95W, and from 
07N to 14N between 101W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong 
northerly winds to 30 kt across and downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec to near 14N tonight, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. These
winds are due to a tight pressure gradient between modest high 
pressure over eastern Mexico and 1007 mb low pressure along the 
monsoon trough near 09N92W. Elsewhere, broad high pressure is 
control of the northeastern Pacific north of 12N and west of 
110W. This pattern is supporting mainly moderate NW breezes north
of 20N except for locally fresh winds near Punta Eugenia and 
fresh westerly winds funneling around the coast of Cabo San 
Lucas. Winds are generally light to gentle SW to W inside the 
Gulf of California. Seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail off Baja 
California, 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 5 ft 
off southern Mexico outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where 
southerly swell continues. A middle-level low pressure center 
offshore of Colima and Michoacan continues to support scattered 
moderate convection, currently north of 17.5N and within 210 nm 
of the coasts from Michoacan to northern Nayarit. 

For the forecast, strong northerly gap winds will continue 
across the Tehuantepec area through Thu then gradually diminish
Fri as low pressure to the west of Papagayo shifts south of 
Tehuantepec late Wed through Fri. Farther north, broad high 
pressure will continue to support moderate to occasionally fresh 
NW winds across the Baja California waters through Thu evening as
high pressure remains centered well to the northwest. Looking 
ahead, fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas are expected 
off Oaxaca by late Sat, expanding to the nearshore waters of 
Guerrero by late Sun as the low pressure shifts westward and 
offshore of the coasts. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this low pressure system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the 
system moves slowly west- northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico. There is a high chance of development within the next 
seven days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong E gap
winds extending from the Papagayo region northward to northern 
Nicaragua and W-SW to near 93W, then turning NE and into a broad
1007 mb low pressure area centered near 09N92W. Scattered to 
locally numerous moderate to strong convection continues to the 
northwest of the low pressure center, to the south of 12.5N and 
offshore of Guatemala and Chiapas, Mexico. Seas are 5 to 8 ft 
downstream of Papagayo, and 7 to 9 ft to the north of the low 
pressure. Gentle to moderate SW to W breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas 
in SW swell are noted elsewhere south of 10N. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is occurring across the waters of Costa Rica
and much of Panama, and extends southwestward and offshore to 
05.5N and westward to 88W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue 
across the Papagayo region through this morning as 1007 mb low 
pressure near 09N92W attempts to gradually become better 
organized, while shifting slowly westward. These fresh to strong
winds will expand across the waters offshore of El Salvador and 
Guatemala today and tonight as the low center passes south of 
those coasts. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of this low pressure system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system 
moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
There is a medium chance of development within the next two 
days, but a high chance within the next seven days. Cross- 
equatorial S swell will build across the regional waters Fri 
night through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure dominates the pattern over the northeast
Pacific north of 11N and west of 110W, centered on a 1031 mb high
near 37N147W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate N to
NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas east of 130W, and moderate to fresh 
NE trade winds and seas 5 to 8 ft west of 130W. Moderate S to SW 
winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in S to SW swell are noted south of 10N,
with gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell noted 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are 
expected north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through
Fri night, then will diminish slightly over the weekend as high
pressure north of the area begins to drift NE. Seas north of 10N
will subside modestly through Thu. Elsewhere, mixed S and SE 
swell will move through the equatorial waters over the next 
several days, promoting rough seas to 8 ft south of 06N over the
weekend.

$$
Stripling/GR