000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 07N126W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N-14N between
85W-103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high at 35N140W
southeastward to 30N125W to 17N105W. Moderate to fresh NW winds
are near the Baja California peninsula, but elsewhere winds are
moderate or weaker. Seas are 8-9 ft in NW swell over the waters 
west of Baja California Norte, 6-7 ft in NW swell over the
Pacific waters west of Cabo Corrientes, 5-6 ft in S swell over 
the Pacific waters east of Cabo Corrientes, and 1-3 ft over the
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the surface ridging paralleling the offshore 
zones is promoting moderate to fresh NW winds near the Baja 
California peninsula today, before diminishing tonight. 
Elsewhere, winds should be moderate or weaker for the next 
several days. Large NW swell will continue impacting the waters 
west of Baja California Norte for the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the 
monsoon trough. While north of the monsoon trough, gentle NE to 
E winds are observed. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is occurring over the Guatemala/El Salvador and Costa 
Rica waters. Seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell over all of the Central 
American and equatorial waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected 
this week south of the monsoon trough from Costa Rica southward 
through the equatorial waters. North of the monsoon trough, 
gentle NE to E winds are anticipated. Looking ahead, moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region Thu
night into this weekend. Elsewhere, a large long-period SW swell
will occur over the equatorial waters by late this week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high at 35N140W
southeastward to 30N125W to 17N105W. A moderate pressure gradient
from the ridge to lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is
forcing fresh to strong NE trades north of 07N west of 120W.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 8-10 ft in N
swell north of 27N east of 127W, 8-9 ft in mixed wind waves and
N swell from 07N-15N west of 133W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in mixed
swell.

For the forecast, as the high north of the area weakens gradually
by mid-week, the NE trades will diminish in strength slightly.
Rather quiescent conditions are expected from Wed through the
weekend. The large N swell over our NE water will spread
southward to 18N west of 120W through tomorrow night before
lowering. A large SW swell event will reach out S border tomorrow
and propagate northward reaching 05N by the weekend. The large
mixed wind waves and N swell near 10N west of 125W will continue
for the next few days.

$$ 
Landsea