513 
AXPZ20 KNHC 172027
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N91W to 14N102W to  
06N120W. The ITCZ then extends from 06N120W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
09N-15N east of 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from 29N130W to 20N112W to 15N105W. The 
pressure gradient from the ridge to a trough over NW Mexico is 
forcing moderate to fresh NW winds north of the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft 
along the Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. 
Reduced visibilities are occurring south of S Mexico due to 
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the surface ridge over the waters west of the 
Baja California peninsula along with the trough over NW Mexico 
will promote fresh NW to N winds over the Pacific north of Cabo 
San Lucas for the next several days. Disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms located several hundred miles to the south of 
southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as 
the disturbance moves slowly westward during the next few days. 
Looking ahead, large NW swell may impact the waters west of Baja 
California Norte beginning on Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the Central American and
equatorial Pacific waters due to a weak pressure gradient over
the area. Seas are 5-6 ft.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11-12N will
help force scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
Central American waters for the next couple of days. Away from 
the isolated thunderstorms, winds should remain moderate or 
weaker through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends from 29N130W to 20N112W to 15N105W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure along 
the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 05N-20N
west of 118W. A weak 1010 mb low is centered at 10N106W with 
fresh SW winds within 120 NM on the SE semicircle. Elsewhere, 
winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft across 
the basin.

For the forecast, little change is expected for the tradewinds
during the next several days. While environmental conditions 
appear only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air, some 
development of the low is possible during the next day or so as 
it remains nearly stationary. By late this weekend, the low is 
forecast to interact or merge with a second system to its east, 
and further development is not expected. Disorganized showers and
thunderstorms located  are associated with a trough of low 
pressure near 11N98W (the second system). Development of this 
system, if any, should be slow to occur as the disturbance moves 
slowly westward during the next few days. Large SW swell should 
reach near the equator west of 100W later today and continue 
through Sun. Looking ahead, large NW swell may impact the waters
west of Baja California Norte beginning on Mon.

$$
Landsea