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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251000
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 UTC Mon Jul 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Georgette is centered at 16.3N 126.8W at 0900 UTC,
moving northwest or 315 degrees at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds
remain 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Georgette is still a category
4 hurricane. Estimated minimum central pressure has leveled off at 952
mb. The eye is still distinct in satellite imagery, which reflects
the recent intensification. Numerous strong convection is noted
within 45 nm of the center and scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is present in the W semicircle within 90 nm. Georgette
is expected to continue moving NW and begin weakening during the
next few days. Georgette will reach cooler waters Monday which will
reinforce the weakening trend. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more
details.

Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 20.1N 113.2W at 0900 UTC, or
about 285 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank is
moving west, or 280 degrees at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds heave
decreased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure has risen to 994 mb. During the past 6 hours
Frank has been drifting slowly W as cloud tops have warmed and
deteriorated. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm
of the center. Frank is expected to resume a WNW motion later
Today and is expected to remain near its current intensity for the
next day or so. Beyond Tuesday, Frank will continue gradually
weakening and move NW before becoming a post-tropical remnant low
on Fri. Large S swell from Frank continue to impact the southern
coast of Baja California Sur and S portions of the Gulf of
California. The swell will reach the central portions of the Baja
Peninsula tonight and Monday. The swell will generate rough and
dangerous surf along the local regional coastlines. Refer to the
latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave N of 09N along 96W is triggering scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec from 12N to 17N between 93W and 100W. This wave will
shift to the west of the Tehuantepec region and the adjacent near
and offshore coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 08N78W to 10N101W to 09N106W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N106W to 07N116W to 08N122W then resumes
from 12N131W to beyond 10N140W. Widely scattered moderate to
strong convection is present within 150 nm of the trough between
88W and 111W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is
north of 13N between 92W and 98.5W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm north and 150 nm south of the
ITCZ west of 128W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Tropical Storm Frank continues drifting slowly W away from
Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds and seas will slowly
improve for these locales. However, outer bands of moderate
convection along the southeast side of Frank persist across the
islands this morning. S swell associated with Frank have been
impacting the area between the southern entrance of the Gulf of
California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. The swell
are fanning out N and NE to inside the southern portions of the
Gulf of California. Offshore seas of 6 to 9 ft are presently
occurring across this area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will spread over
the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early
Monday, away from the immediate vicinity of Frank. This will
maintain rough and hazardous marine conditions across the offshore
waters, and produce large and powerful surf along the exposed
coastal areas of Baja California Sur and western Mexico. Large
waves and very strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines
through Monday.

N swell related to strong winds of California are pushing south.
The swell will mix with S swell generated by Frank off the Baja
California Norte coast through the next couple of days but
conditions should slowly improve this week as Frank moves NW away
from the area.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by
nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

High pressure is building N of the area and into the sub-
tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has
dissipated W of the area. This is allowing a modest increase in
trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W,
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms north of a newly
formed ITCZ boundary. Georgette will track NW and weaken the
ridge again during the next couple of days, allowing trade winds
to diminish.

Swell generated from Georgette, and Frank as it crosses W of 120W
Tuesday night, will interact with N swell generated from strong
winds W of the California coast. N swell to 9 ft will propagate
into the waters west of 120W and north of 24N into mid week.

$$
CAM