100 
AXPZ20 KNHC 230107
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 117W from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection from 
10N to 15.5N between 104W and 116W.

A tropical wave has moved west of the area near 141.5W from 04N 
to 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from  14N to 21N between 135W and 140W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N76W to
across the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica to 08N93.5W to
10N117W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to beyond
10N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 02N to 11N between 77W and 96W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07.5N to 11.5N between 128W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is inland over mainland NW Mexico with ridging
continuing to dominate the waters west of Baja California. This
pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds across
the offshore wates of Mexico, including the Gulf of California,
except fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to
a locally tight pressure gradient and nocturanl drainage flow. 
Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters, dominated by S to
SW swell, with 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong north gap 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Wed night as 
a diurnal surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan 
Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to moderate 
to fresh there thereafter, possibly increasing back to fresh to
strong early next week. Winds are likely to freshen west of Baja
California by mid-week as the pressure gradient tightens 
slightly, then increase to fresh to strong mainly north of Cabo 
San Lazaro by the end of the week and into the weekend. Seas may
build to around 8 ft there by the start of the weekend. Mainly
moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will be 4
to 6 ft across the open waters, diminishing to 3 to 5 ft outside
of off Baja California Norte by the weekend. Seas will be 1 to 3
ft in the Gulf of California through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region. Moderate southerly winds are over the waters 
south of the monsoon trough with light and variable winds 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S 
to SW swell, except to 7 ft near and downwind of the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Very active convection with intense lightning possible 
is over the offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through early 
Wed, then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect 
the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through 
Thu. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue
south of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas 
will subside somewhat across the waters by the end of the week,
then build back slightly in new S to SW swell this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 
around 23N116W. A pair of tropical waves are south of the ridge 
as described above, one now west of the area near 141.5W and one
near 116W. Winds near 140W near the departed wave are fresh to
locally strong, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in the vicinity. 
Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere from roughly 10N to 19N 
and west of 110W, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate 
northeast to east trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. South of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, winds are moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft in 
mixed southerly swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently just west of the
area at 141.5W will continue to move away from the discussion
waters, with associated winds shifting west of the area tonight.
Seas of 8 to 10 ft will linger in the wake of the tropical wave 
through mid-week as the other tropical wave, currently near 116W
moves westward. Little change in seas is forecast elsewhere. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will linger from north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ to around 20N through the week until the 
second tropical wave exits, with little change in winds expected 
elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky