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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU DEC 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N92W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N92W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

1036 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD EXTENDS 
FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N116W TO 
28N122W TO 31N138W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
INDICATED N OF THE FRONT BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE 
FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...PUSH 
S ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI WHILE DISSIPATING...AND BE 
DISSIPATED BY SAT. SHORT PERIOD 10-13 FT N SWELL WILL SWEEP N OF 
28N BETWEEN 116W-127W TONIGHT AND FRI.

TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC W OF 120W REMAIN LIMITED 
TO 15-20 KT OR LESS. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES NE OF HAWAII AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 24N W OF 135W THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
BY LATE SAT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURRENT EVENT CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN WITH 
WINDS EASING BELOW GALE FORCE AT 25/1800 UTC. FURTHER 
DIMINISHING OF WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD 
INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
WEAKENS AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO. AN RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED THAT SEAS 
REMAINED IN THE 12-14 FT RANGE AND GIVEN THE DIMINISHING WIND 
FIELD...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS WELL. REMAINING NE SWELL 
IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION 
AND REACH FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W FRI. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE GAP WINDS 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MAX WINDS 
EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT OVERNIGHT AND GENERATE A PLUME OF 8-11 
FT SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOURCE REGION FRI MORNING...WITH 8-9 
FT SWELL REACHING TO 101W SAT. A WEAKER DIURNAL PULSE IS 
EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT FRI INTO 
EARLY SAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA SAT.

$$
HUFFMAN



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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Dec-2014 21:27:45 UTC