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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 280254

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0215 UTC Sat Aug 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.


Hurricane Lester centered near 18.0N 120.8W at 28/0300 UTC moving
west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to
110 kt. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours. A well-defined eye is present with Lester with numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection within 30 nm in the
east semicircle and 60 nm in the west semicircle. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere within 210 nm in the east
semicircle and 90 nm in the west semicircle. Lester will
continue on a general westward motion, with an increase in
forward speed during the next couple of days. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Storm Madeline centered just west of the area near 15.7N
140.1W at 28/0300 UTC moving west-northwest or 285 degrees at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm in the northeast
semicircle and 210 nm in the southwest semicircle. Madeline will
continue on a general northwest motion in the next couple of days
with a decrease in forward speed. Madeline is forecast to
strengthen to a hurricane by tomorrow night. See the final NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
for more details, with the next forecast/advisory issued by CPHC


The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N90W to low pressure near
10.5N111W, then resumes near 13N120W to 11N126W to 15N133W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 104W and
108W, from 11N to 13N between 113W and 115W, and also within 150
nm southwest of the axis between 121W and 135W.



Generally moderate northwest flow will persist across the waters
off Baja California, with lighter winds farther south. An
exception will be north of 27N and west of 118W where fresh to
locally strong northerly flow will seep southward from off of the
California coast by late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
helping to build fresh seas to 7 to 9 ft. Fresh northerly winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight into early
Sunday, with nocturnal winds only pulsing to moderate at best
thereafter. Expect light to moderate variable winds in the Gulf
of California through the week.


Light and moderate winds will continue to prevail on either side
of the monsoon trough for the next several days, with combined
seas of 4 to 7 ft mainly in cross equatorial southerly swell. 


A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending
from 1019 mb high pressure near 30N130W. A weak surface trough
extends from 26N136W to 23N138W, and will move west of 140W
Sunday. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Lester will
produce a band of moderate to fresh winds roughly from 18N to 22N,
with combined seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet.

Low pressure at 1010 mb is located near Clipperton Island at
10.5N111W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm in the
southwest quadrant of the low. Prospects for tropical cyclone
formation remain low through the next several days at is tracks
westward along the monsoon trough. Model guidance shows moderate
to fresh southwesterly monsoon flow into the monsoon trough west
of the low pressure from 07N to 13N between 110W and 127W, with
winds increasing to fresh to strong on Sunday before diminishing
back to moderate to fresh on Monday. Seas currently up to 8 ft
will build to 8 to 10 ft by Sunday evening.