AXPZ20 KNHC 290946
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 29 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Hilary is centered near 20.7N 120.8W at 0900 UTC
or about 620 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California and
moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 19N to 23N
between 118W and 122W. Satellite photos overnight has shown a
ragged eye developing within the central circulation of Hilary,
but convection has been limited across the NW semicircle. Hilary
will continue moving off to the NW during the next few days and
gradually weaken to a remnant low by 48 hours as it encounters
cooler waters. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more details.
Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 14.9N 124.9W at 0900 UTC
or about 975 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California and
drifting NW. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 16N between 123W
and 127W. Irwin is expected to resume a northward motion today
and then follow Hilary off to the NNW then NW Sunday through
Tuesday, while also weakening as it reaches cooler waters. See
latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave IS ALONG 99W-100W moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
11N to 17N between 96W and 102W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N83W to 09N90W to 11N100W to
14N115W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 09N140W. Other
than the convection related to the tropical wave, scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 15N between 87W and
92W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between
82W and 100W, from 07N to 16N between 103W and 115W, and within
90 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure centered NW of the area will support gentle to
moderate NW winds within 120 nm of the Baja California peninsula
through Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Hilary's affects are now mainly
west of the area, with some small southerly swell to fade across
the far outer waters today. However the NW movement of the
system will allow a ridge axis to fill in between the departing
cyclone and Baja California, which in turn will result in
moderate to fresh NW winds Sunday through early next week. As
these winds increase, seas will build into a range of 7 to 9 ft
as the wind waves combine with a round of long-period southerly
swell moving into the region over the next few days
Cross equatorial long period southerly swell with seas of 7 to 8
ft will reach the offshore waters between the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes on Sunday, and the waters
between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes on Monday. Elsewhere,
generally moderate NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft will prevail.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Across the Gulf of Papagayo, expect fresh winds to persist
through early this morning and develop again tonight with the
assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, building maximum seas
of 6 to 7 ft in a mix of E wind waves and long period SW swell.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected the
next few days. Large long period cross-equatorial S-SW swell
will continue to propagate into the forecast waters over the
weekend, with seas 8 to 9 ft reaching as far north as 10N by
tonight. The area of 8 ft seas will then reach just offshore all
Central America Pacific coastal sections by Sunday. Seas will
gradually subside starting Monday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure is located N of the area with a ridge axis
extending across the northern forecast waters N of 25N. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure system and the
active zone of tropical cyclones will maintain moderate to fresh
N to NE winds W of 120W through Saturday. Long period cross
equatorial SW swell of 8 to 9 ft will spread across the waters S
of 10N and E of 110W today, persisting through Sunday night. As
the tropical cyclone activity shifts to the NW and eventually
weakens over the discussion waters later this weekend, a weak
pressure pattern will develop between the cyclones and the
equatorial trough to the south. This will result in a broadening
area of gentle to moderate winds between 10N and 20N, W of 115W
early next week.