557 
AXNT20 KNHC 041735
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jun 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: Recent scatterometer data indicate strong to
near gale force NE winds over the waters between Morocco and the 
Canary Islands. Gusts to gale force are expected through this 
evening, with a Gale Warning in effect through 05/00 UTC for
Meteo-France's Agadir zone. Seas of 8-11 ft are also analyzed in
this area.

For more information, please refer to the warning issued by 
Meteo-France at wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 
28W, south of 13N, moving westward at near 15 kt. Nearby 
convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 07N19W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 01N38W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 08N between 14W and 30W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Scattered strong convection is observed in the far SW
Caribbean generally S of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A pair of surface troughs extend across the central to eastern 
Gulf, as well as west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from the Yucatan Channel NE to the E Gulf as an
upper level low moves northward. Winds are locally strong to near gale
force in the strongest convection. Scatterometer data indicates 
moderate to fresh S to SE winds S of 27N and E of 88W outside of
convection, along with 4-6 ft seas in this region. The remainder
of the Gulf is seeing moderate or weaker SE winds and seas of 1-4
ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas 
across the western and south-central Gulf through Fri between a 
trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is leading to the development of scattered
strong convection across the NW Caribbean, generally N of 14N to
the Yucatan Channel and W of 82W. The pressure gradient between a
1026 mb high over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is 
supporting strong to near gale-force winds over the central and 
NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across 
the basin. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the central Caribbean 
per recent altimeter data, and 5-8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough 
seas will continue across most of the Caribbean into late week, 
then diminish slightly at the end of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning off the coast of Morocco.

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 28N66W to 29N72W where it
becomes a stationary front, which then extends to 31N79W.  A 
surface trough also extends over the NW waters off the coast of 
northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the
NW waters N of 24N and W of 75W. Farther east, another surface 
trough extends from 30N54W to 23N59W, with scattered showers 
observed between this trough and the aforementioned cold front.
Another trough is analyzed from 26N30W to 17N30W, with showers
observed near the north end of the trough axis.

Outside of convection and showers, much of the Atlantic is under
the influence of ridging stemming from a 1030 mb high centered
near 39N36W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures over northern Africa supports fresh to strong winds and 
6-8 ft seas between the NW coast of Africa and the Canary Islands.
Moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail across much of 
the Atlantic south of 20N, as well as areas north of 20N and E of
50W, and immediately off the northern coasts of the Greater 
Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas 
prevail. 

Recent satellite imagery also indicates a large plume of Saharan
Dust emerging off the coast of Africa. Dust concentration is
highest generally between 09N and 22N and E of 26W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front SE of Bermuda will 
drift E across the NE waters through late this week. A surface 
trough along the SE U.S. coast will bring showers and 
thunderstorms offshore Florida over the next couple of days. 
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate. A tight pressure gradient 
will lead to fresh to strong winds pulsing nightly offshore 
Hispaniola through Fri. 

$$
Adams