000
AXNT20 KNHC 172300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun May 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2250 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W, then curves 
southwestward to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward to
the east coast of Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered moderate 
convection associated with these features is observed across much 
of the Atlantic waters between the Equator and 08N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface rigding from the Atlantic extends west across the
eastern Gulf and tightens the pressure gradient over the far
western Gulf, thus supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and 4 ft
seas. The ridge also supports fresh to strong NE to E winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula due to the presence of a surface trough
inland. Moderate NE to E winds are across the Florida Straits with
3 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds are ongoing elsewhere
along with slight seas. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires 
over southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions at the west- 
central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and 
eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh with locally strong
SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. 
Pulsing fresh to locally strong E winds are likely each afternoon 
and evening through Tue night, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a
trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will sustain hazy 
conditions at the west-central and southwestern Gulf most likely 
through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 32N42W extends a broad
ridge SW to the northern Caribbean and supports moderate to fresh
trade winds over the eastern basin and Gulf of Honduras, and NE
fresh winds in the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds are
elsewhere along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, a surface
trough NE of Puerto Rico is generating scattered showers and tstms
across the eastern Caribbean, the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin
Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during late afternoons and nights 
through the period. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will 
persist over the Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser 
Antilles through Sun night. Increasing trades along with building 
seas are expected across the eastern part of the basin Sun night. 
These conditions will shift westward across the central and 
southwestern basin through next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 32N42W extends a broad
ridge across the subtropical waters and into the tropics. A
surface trough NE of Puerto Rico is generating scattered showers 
and tstms S of 27N between 55W and 65W. The ridge is also
intersected by a surface trough, remnants of a former front, which
extends from 30N17W to 23N25W to 21N40W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and rough seas to 9 ft are in the vicinity of the trough. 
Winds and seas of the same magnitude are also ongoing across the
tropical Atlantic waters while fresh northerly winds are between
the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Locally moderate
or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough will move across the NW 
part of the area Sun through Mon, preceded by gentle to moderate S
to SW winds. Meanwhile, broad high pressure extending 
southwestward from the central Atlantic to Florida will support 
gentle winds south of 28N. In the long term, fresh to locally 
strong southwesterly winds and building seas are expected east of 
northeastern Florida and northeast of the Bahamas around the 
middle of next week, in response to a late season cold front that 
will move off the southeastern United States coast. This front may
be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther 
south, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse north 
of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night into next 
week. Otherwise, the presence of a mid to upper level trough and 
associated surface trough will continue to support unsettled 
weather conditions primarily over the waters S of about 27N 
between 58W and 64W through early Mon.

$$
Ramos