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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 232328
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: A Gale Warning has been issued by
Meteo-France for the waters offshore Agadir. Gale force N winds
are anticipated along with severe gusts through 24/00z. For more 
information, please see Meteo-France's website at: 
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 27W from 
04N to 17N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered 
showers are seen from 08N to 14N between 25W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 06N 
to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 07N to 13N between 40W and 50W.

A large tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis 
near 59W from 18N southward. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 17N between 55W
and 65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and 
continues southwestward to 11N25W, and then to 10N39W. The ITCZ 
then extends from 10N39W to 09N44W then resumes from 09N46W to
08N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to 13N
between 33W and 40W, and from 05N to 10N between 50W and 56W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is offshore W
Africa from 05N to 11N between 10W and 17W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally S of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough of low pressure near northern Florida and another trough
extending from SE Louisiana to the SE Gulf are producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and NE basin
while mostly isolated showers are ongoing over the SE Gulf,
including the Florida Straits. A 1017 mb high located near 28N95W 
is leading to moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 
less than 3 ft across much of the basin.

For the forecast, over the next day or two, the trough of low 
pressure near northern Florida is forecast to move west-
southwestward into the north-central portion of the Gulf where 
some slow development is possible. By this weekend, the system is 
likely to move inland, ending its chances for development. 
Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are expected in association with this system across 
most of the NE and north-central Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh northeast to east winds are forecast along the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland 
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A combination of high moisture over the NW Caribbean and an
upper-level low over the region are leading to scattered heavy
showers in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is occurring over
Hispaniola and adjacent waters due to upper level diffluence. Over
the E Caribbean an approaching tropical waves is generating heavy
showers and tstms E of 64W, including the Lesser Antilles. 
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of 
the region and a 1009 mb Colombia Low is leading to fresh to 
strong trades in the central and SW Caribbean, along with 6-7 ft 
seas. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the E 
Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail 
in the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean through the end of the week. Fresh to 
locally strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in the 
Windward Passage are expected through the end of the week. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are occurring N of Hispaniola and in the Great
Bahama Bank. The subtropical Atlantic waters are dominated by 
ridging stemming from the 1030 mb Azores high. Fresh to strong
easterly winds prevail N of Hispaniola and the Mona Passage while
moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere S of 23N between 55W and
76W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring
N of 17N and E of 35W, with locally strong NE winds occurring in 
between the Canary Islands, as well as near the coasts of Morocco,
Western Sahara, and Mauritania. Much of the remaining basin is 
seeing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region. N of Hispaniola, 
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, fresh to strong 
winds and moderate seas are expected through the end of the week. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with mostly 
moderate seas are expected. A frontal boundary is forecast to 
reach the NE waters toward the end of the work-week and dissipate,
with little change expected in winds and seas.

$$
Ramos