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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 271022

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 04N30W to 13N34W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 28W-40W and
remains in Saharan dust across the eastern tropical Atlc. As a significant deep convection is occurring with the
wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 09N82W to 17N85W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing over the SW
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America between 77W-88W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-17N between 80W-86W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
07N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N23W to 05N30W to 06N47W to 09N53W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-07N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-11N between 46W-54W.


Fairly tranquil conditions are across the Gulf basin this morning
as a 1019 mb surface high is centered across the NE Gulf waters
near 28N84W. The ridge provides overall gentle to moderate E-SE
winds. These conditions are expected through Tuesday. Thereafter
for Tuesday night into Wednesday...the ridge axis will move
slightly southward to along 26N as an area of lower pressure
develops across the coastal plain of the SE CONUS. A weak frontal
trough is expected to extend from southern Georgia to the Texas
coast near Galveston on Wednesday.

An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 16N85W and along with a tropical wave along 84W is providing
the necessary low-level and upper level lifting dynamics to
generate scattered showers and tstms from 09N-17N between 80W-86W. the upper level low is centered NE of Puerto
Rico near 22N62W with broad troughing extending over much of the
NE and north-central Caribbean to 80W. While water vapor imagery
indicates dry air and stable conditions associated with the
troughing...a narrow band of cloudiness and possible isolated
showers and tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of a line
from 17N60W to 12N70W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trade
prevail across most of the basin this morning. One exception is
fresh to strong trades generally S of 16N between 70W-81W due to a
strengthened pressure gradient across the region.

Currently skies remain mostly clear as NW flow aloft prevails.
Peak daytime heating and instability on Monday are expected to
generate isolated showers and tstms late afternoon into the early
evening across portions of the island.

A surface ridge prevails across much of the basin anchored by a
1035 mb high centered N of the Azores near 42N29W. Within the far
western periphery of the ridge...a weak 1017 mb low is centered
off the coast of Georgia near 31N79W with a stationary front
analyzed from 32N72W to the low then to the Georgia coast near
31N81W. Isolated showers are occurring N of 28N between 63W-74W
within gentle to moderate SE winds. Elsewhere...a weak surface
trough is analyzed from 18N55W to 22N52W and is providing focus
for isolated showers from 17N-24N between 51W-60W as this energy
moves W during the next 24 hours.

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