000
AXNT20 KNHC 211043
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough will
dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea today through Wed 
then lift out to the northeast through Fri. This feature is 
expected to destabilize the atmosphere, and support very active 
convection across the south-central Caribbean beginning today,
with strong afternoon convection across the Greater Antilles. 
Convection is then expected to develop north and northeastward 
across the central Caribbean and Greater Antilles, from Jamaica 
and eastern Cuba, to western Puerto Rico, Wed through Fri. Latest 
computer model guidance currently suggests that the highest 
rainfall accumulations with this event may occur across 
Hispaniola. Residents in these locations should remain alert for 
significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer 
to your local weather office for more specific information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough curves southwestward from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W to 07.5N19W to 06N29W. An ITCZ continues 
westward from 06N29W to 03.5N36W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted south of 07N E of 30W, and
from 06N to 07.5N between 52W and 56W. 

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring along the
eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough, and extends to  
the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery shows dry stable air dominating all but the NW
portions of the Gulf this morning, to the west of a deep layered
upper trough along about 80W, digging southward into the NW
Caribbean. At the surface, a weakening frontal trough has moved
southward into south Florida. Weak high pressure across the
eastern U.S. extends southwestward into the northern Gulf behind
this trough. Mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft 
are present across the Gulf waters W of 88W. Gentle E-NE to E 
winds with 2 to 3 ft seas dominate the rest of the Gulf.

Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery reveal 
haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Mexico is causing
reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin through
the end of the week to produce moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds across most of the basin, becoming SE to S winds Fri and 
Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layered upper trough along 80W extends from the western
Atlantic to western Cuba, ans is digging southward across the NW
Caribbean. This energetic feature has initiated widely scattered
moderate convection across the waters between western Jamaica and
western Cuba, and has enhanced convection across the SW Caribbean
described above. A weak surface ridge along 25N extends north of
the basin to 74W, and is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
across the south-central basin extending to the coastal waters of
Hispaniola. Seas in this zone are 6 to 9 ft. Otherwise, gentle  
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist across the southwestern basin and 
north of the Cayman Islands. Moderate to locally fresh E to E-SE 
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea. Scattered light to moderate showers are across portions of  
the SE Caribbean south of 14N.

Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate
haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America 
are causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the 
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the deep layer trough will continue to dig 
southward across the western Caribbean today through Wed, then 
lift out to the NE through Fri. This feature will support very 
active weather across central portions of the basin beginning 
today, and gradually shift NE through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds will develop in the central Caribbean this afternoon, ahead
of the active weather, and shift northeastward through Thu while 
diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural 
fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, 
but continue to thin out. See the special features section for
information on expected weather associated with the upper trough.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layered upper level trough extends from offshore of Georgia
southward along 79W-80W across western Cuba and into the NW
Caribbean. At the surface, a stationary front extends from 31N64W
to 1009 mb low pressure near 28.5N77W then continues as a trough 
across south Florida. The upper trough is supporting scattered
moderate isolated strong convection to the southeast of the front
and low to a line from 31N60W and 21N73W. Moderate E-NE to N winds
prevail across the waters NW of the frontal system, with overnight
scatterometer data showing fresh winds in this region over the
Gulfstream. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area, except 7 to 9 ft
in the Gulfstream offshore of Cape Canaveral, as recently measured
by satellite altimeter.

To the east, 1024 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 33N24W, and extends a ridge W-SW to near 25N74W.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail within the ridge
between 20N and 30W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft within the ridge. South of
20N, mainly moderate NE to E trade winds prevail, where seas are 
4 to 6 ft, with a few small areas to 7 ft possible.

For the forecast W of 55W, he front will move southeastward and 
stall and weaken from near 31N70W to SE Florida by Wed morning. A 
trough will develop just southeast of the weakening front and 
extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then drift eastward 
through Thu night. Meanwhile, scattered convection will persist
southeast of these features. Moderate winds and seas will prevail
in the western Atlantic with the front and trough through 
midweek. Weak low pressure is expected to develop just N of 
Hispaniola Thu night and shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by 
moderate to fresh winds and active weather. 

$$
Stripling