691 
AXNT20 KNHC 020922
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08.5N13W and 
continues southwestward to 04N26.5W. The ITCZ extends from 
04N26.5W to east of Brazil near 00N46W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between the coast of Africa
and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Recent ASCAT scatterometer data showed fresh NE to E winds near
the coast of Campeche and fresh easterly winds in the Straits of
Florida with 1014 mb high pressure analyzed SE of Louisiana near
29N88W, and a pair of weak troughs, one from near the coast near
Tampa Bay Florida to NW of the Dry Tortugas, and the other just
west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker
elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft near the highest winds, and 3 to 5 
ft elsewhere, except 3 ft of less in the NE Gulf coastal waters. 
The latest radar and satellite data shows scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms in the NW Gulf ahead of an outflow boundary
analyzed by the Weather Prediction Center near the Texas coast.

For the forecast, high pressure will be the main feature 
controlling the weather pattern across the basin through tonight. 
The associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh 
east to southeast winds over the basin through Sat morning, except
gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf. East winds will pulse to 
strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of 
Campeche tonight and Sat night in association with a diurnal 
trough. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected 
across the Straits of Florida through tonight. A weak cold front 
will reach the northern Gulf early Sat before shifting east of the
basin Sun night. High pressure will then build southward across 
the Gulf leading to mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds over 
most of the forecast zones early next week, increasing to fresh to
strong over the western Gulf by early Tue as the gradient 
tightens. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between a weak 1021 mb high pressure 
centered over the western Atlantic and lower pressures over
northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds 
across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Central Cuba per
earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the
Windward Passage. In additionally, this pattern is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of Dominican Republic,
locally strong near Cabo Beata, and locally fresh offshore 
Colombia. Gentle to moderate E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted 
across the remainder of the waters. A few showers and 
thunderstorms are active near the monsoon trough off the coast of 
Colombia and eastern Panama south of 13N. Divergent flow aloft on
the southeast side of an upper trough that extends from the 
western Atlantic to the western Caribbean is supporting scattered 
showers and a few thunderstorms across the north central and 
northeast Caribbean, N of 14N, and across portions of Hispaniola.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic 
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong 
northeast winds through the Windward Passage and in the Lee of 
Cuba until around sunrise. Fresh northeast winds are expected 
south of the Dominican Republic, mainly near Cabo Beata through 
the morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds will materialize 
through the Windward Passage again tonight. Moderate to fresh 
winds will pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong 
Tue night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over most of 
the eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Otherwise, rather quiet 
conditions are expected over the basin into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough extends W-SW across the 
Hispaniola. This feature is creating unstable atmospheric 
conditions to the south and east of it, and supporting active 
weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring S of 
22N between Hispaniola and 63W. A 1014 mb low pressure has been
analyzed near 27N53W. A surface trough extends southwestward from
the low pressure to the northeastern Caribbean. Scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms are active from 20N northward 
to 31N between 42W and the low pressure at 51W. Northwest of the 
low, a stationary front reaches from 31N53.5W to 26N65W. Near
31.5N71.5W a 1021 mb high is centered. The pressure gradient 
between the high and the other surface features is producing 
moderate to fresh NE winds to the west of the low and surface 
trough, with fresh to strong SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas SE of 
the low from 21N to 28N between 44W and 51W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft 
prevail to the east of the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds are 
elsewhere over the SW N Atlantic, except fresh through the 
Straits of Florida and fresh to strong across the approach to the 
Windward Passage.

Farther east, 1023 mb high pressure is east of the front near 
31.5N34.5W, and a 1004 mb low center is approaching the SW Iberian
Peninsula near 37N09W. This pattern is supporting a large area of
moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 8 to 13 ft seas over the 
eastern Atlantic around the SE and S periphery of the high from
06N to 27N and E of 50W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft from near the low
center southwestward offshore Africa from the Cabo Verde Islands
northward and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the
remainder of the waters with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front and a surface 
trough, with a weak low along it, will persist over the central 
Atlantic between 50W and 60W over the next 48 hours or so. Fresh 
to strong NE to E winds and building seas to rough are expected 
over the NW part of it today and Sat due to the pressure gradient 
between the trough/low and high pressure to the N. The low should 
dissipate by Sun, and the trough is forecast to drift westward 
over the forecast waters through at least early next week. An area
of fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas will persist 
near the northern end of the trough axis affecting mainly the NE 
waters. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may approach then stall 
near the southeastern U.S. coast late Sat night into Sun. 

$$
Lewitsky