600 
AXNT20 KNHC 221801
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is repositioned to near 43W from
14N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen from 03N to 06N between 40W and 44W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of Barbados near 56W 
from 16N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 55W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is repositioned to near 72W from south 
of Hispaniola southward to near the Colombia/Venezuela border, 
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is evident near the Colombia-Venezuela border.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from the Gulf of
Honduras southward across Honduras, Nicaragua, western Costa Rica
into the East Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate convection
is found from the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula eastward to near
the Cayman Islands.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of 
Mauritania and Western Sahara, then curves southwestward to
09N20W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 09N20W to 
06N40W, and then northwestward from 06N44W to 08N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon 
trough from 08N to 11N between coast of southern Senegal and 20W.
Similar convection is noted near and up to 50 nm north of the 
first ITCZ segment. For the second ITCZ segment, numerous moderate
convection is present up to 100 nm along either side.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific
monsoon trough is generating numerous heavy showers scattered
thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Tampico, Mexico. An upper-level trough is
triggering isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a surface ridge is providing
gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the
eastern and central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds with
4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters over the next several days. SE winds on the western 
periphery of the ridge will continue to transport abundant 
tropical moisture northward across the western Gulf through Mon, 
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The 
stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and 
locally higher seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse each 
afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal 
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and 
western Gulf will diminish early this week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Caribbean Sea. A 1023 mb high near 29N74W
continues to support a robust trade-wind regime across most of the
Caribbean Basin. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal fresh
to strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas at the south-central
basin. Mostly fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate the 
north-central and southwestern basin north of 11N. Mainly gentle
winds with 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell are found near Costa Rica
and Panama. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high 
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over 
the central part of the basin through midweek. Moderate to rough 
seas are expected within these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong 
winds are forecast in the Windward Passage tonight and again Mon 
night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will 
prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a weak 1021 mb low 
pressure near 31N57W to 27N65W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring near and up to 130 nm north of this feature. Farther
east, convergent southerly winds are causing similar convection
north of 28N between 47W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1034 Azores High
across 30N35W to a 1023 mb high northeast of the Bahamas at
29N74W. Besides locally higher winds and seas near the two
aforementioned areas of convection, this ridge is sustaining
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of
24N between 43W and Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther south
from 20N to 24W between 35W and the Bahamas, moderate with locally
fresh easterly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist. For the tropical
Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles,
fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are
noted. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas
in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin
west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough/low is 
forecast to drift northeastward over the next couple of days. 
Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will prevail. Moderate to fresh 
trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected 
south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally 
moderate winds elsewhere. 

$$

Chan