000
AXNT20 KNHC 261105
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to
15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
11N to 18N between 57W and 65W. The tropical wave will move 
through the eastern Caribbean Sea today, the central basin on Mon
and the W Caribbean Tue. Showers are likely for Puerto Rico and 
the Virgin Islands tonight into Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
close to 10N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 
06N30W to 05N40W. A squall line is generating heavy showers and
tstms from from 01N to 10N between 10W and 17W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 27W and 41W.  

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is E of 87W with light to gentle variable winds
and slight seas. W of 87W, lower pressure tightens the gradient
and supports moderate to fresh SE winds with moderate seas to 6
ft. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue 
across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to extend 
from the western Atlantic across the E Gulf into the upcoming 
week. This will maintain a weak pressure pattern over the basin. 
Mostly moderate to fresh SE to S winds will exist W of 87W through
early Mon while light to gentle SE to S winds will exist E of 
87W. The winds W of 87W will shift to W of 90W afterwards while 
winds east of 87W generally become light and variable, except S of
26N where they become gentle NE winds. Seas will be slight to 
moderate during the period. A cold front is expected to move 
across the NE Gulf Tue through Wed, followed by gentle to moderate
W to NW winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern
and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at 
night through the period.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is presently just west of the Windward Islands
along 63W, generating heavy showers of tstms over the E Caribbean.  
High pressure over the E Gulf of Mexico as well as in the NE of 
the northern Bahamas, supports moderate to fresh trade winds
across the Gulf of Honduras and the central and E Caribbean. Seas
are moderate in the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia and slight
elsewhere.  

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will 
maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin, 
except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras 
at night through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the
central Caribbean are forecast to increase to fresh to strong 
speeds late Mon night through late Tue night, then shifting to 
between 75W and 80W for the rest of the forecast period. The  
tropical wave will bring scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms to the E Caribbean waters through Mon. Strong gusty 
winds and rough seas are likely with this activity. The wave may 
lose definition as moves across the central Caribbean during mid 
week. Dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America is 
likely to change over the Gulf of Honduras into the early part of 
the upcoming week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1012 mb low is near 28N63W, with a trough extending SW to 
Haiti and associated scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh
winds are in the E semicircle of the low along with moderate seas
to 6 ft. The Azores High and associated ridge dominates the 
remainder subtropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and moderate to rough seas to 8 ft are N of 20N and E of
37W. Similar winds and seas are ongoing in the tropical Atlantic
waters. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the low will continue to move 
generally ENE through this evening as it weakens further with a 
trailing trough. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will 
remain over the region for the next few days. The associated 
gradient will support moderate winds and seas N of the Bahamas and
off NE Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward 
ahead of a weakening cold front that is expected to move across 
the waters N of the Bahamas Tue through Wed. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may accompany the front.

$$
Ramos