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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS 
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE 
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE 
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W 
FROM 04N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT AIRMASS...SAL 
TRACKING AND PSEUDO-NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR 
AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 
25W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 
59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED IN AN ABUNDANT MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 
66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS 
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT N OF 16N WHERE A 
PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS AND THE 
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 09N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N21W AND 
CONTINUES TO 08N28W...RESUMING NEAR 07N31W THEN CONTINUING ALONG 
05N41W TO 06N49W TO 08N56W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 
10N E OF 25W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED 
OVER THE EPAC WATERS SW OF GUATEMALA COVERS THE WESTERN GULF S 
OF 26N. N OF 26N THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS 
THE EASTERN CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG 
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 21N TO 27N W OF 91W 
AND N OF 28N BETWEEN SW LOUISIANA AND GALVESTON TEXAS. MAINLY 
DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES OF 
MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 26N84W SUPPORT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE 
ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W. 
EXCEPT FOR SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. A 
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS JUST 
EAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE 
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE 
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS 
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND N-NW ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE 
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A BULGE OF 
MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 65W. SEE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1010 MB LOW IS 
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W THUS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH TSTMS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. ELSEWHERE 
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG 
WITH A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
AND ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL BASIN WED ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE AIRMASS IN ITS 
NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND 
DURING THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THUS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS. AN 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E PAC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N33W TO 28N46W TO 27N55W. RIDGING 
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Jun-2015 18:05:57 UTC