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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281749
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 70.2W AT 28/1800 UTC 
OR ABOUT 50 NM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 
265 NM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 66W-70W. SEE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N37W TO 19N36W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING ON 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 24N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N51W TO 18N50W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED 700 
MB TROUGH BETWEEN 45W-58W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
11N15W TO 13N27W TO 11N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 10N49W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 13W-21W...AND FROM 08N-12N 
BETWEEN 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD AND ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W THAT STRETCHES TROUGHING 
ALOFT FROM OVER THE SE CONUS SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW GULF 
NEAR 20N93W. WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR ALOFT... 
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF 
WATERS...THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W SW TO 24N93W. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...ALONG 
WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 88W-
95W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FULLY BY SATURDAY WITH 
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAILING. 
CERTAINLY WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA BY SUNDAY... 
INTERESTS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA 
STRAITS...KEYS...AND PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
ERIKA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
ALL EYES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CURRENT 
TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND NW INTO THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS. MAIN IMPACT OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WILL BE LARGE AMOUNTS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS RESULTING IN FLASH 
FLOODING AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR NOTED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED 
NEAR 13N73W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 17N84W. 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-NE TRADES PREVAIL AND 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIKA TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS 
SURFACE RIDGING FOLLOWS IN ERIKA'S WAKE...TRADES ARE FORECAST TO 
INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE RANGE AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY 
INTO MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR 
OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN 
IMPACT FROM ERIKA ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS THE 
THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH ERIKA RESULTING IN 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                           
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS AND NW BAHAMAS NW OF A LINE FROM 23N79W TO 
32N73W THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTHEAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO 
THE ATLC WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO...THE MONA 
PASSAGE...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N63W AND NEAR 27N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 17:50:00 UTC