133 
AXNT20 KNHC 042133
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon May 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and extends south-southwestward to 08N17W to 
05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N30W to 04N40W to near 
the coast of Brazil at 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing from 02N to 04N between 10W and 15W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is moving very slowly across the eastern Gulf, and
extends from Steinhatchee, Florida to 26N90W, then is stationary
to just south of of Barra El Mezquital in northeast Mexico. A trough
is ahead of the front, extending from Cape Sable, Florida to 25N90W.
A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the trough over 
the south-central Gulf. This pattern is supporting generally light
breezes across the basin with 1 to 3 ft, except for moderate E 
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of the front off northeast Mexico. 
Light smoke from agricultural and forest fires over southern 
Mexico covers most of the basin.

For the forecast, the front will stall and weaken Mon morning. Gentle
to moderate winds will dominate the basin through early Mon. 
Winds over the western zones will gradually strengthen Mon evening
through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to moderate to 
fresh in the Straits of Florida through mid- week. Another weak 
front may reach the NW Gulf midweek. Smoke from agricultural fires
in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some 
sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest reported visibility 
near the SW Gulf coast. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A few showers and thunderstorms are active just off the eastern
tip of Jamaica, but no significant showers or thunderstorms are
active elsewhere. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft
are noted across the basin at this time. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 
pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Tue 
night, Wed night and Thu night. Unsettled weather is expected to 
continue over most of the eastern Caribbean well into the week. 
Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected
over the remainder of the basin through the period, including in 
the Tropical N Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
1029 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic near
37N47W. Two lingering low level troughs remains across the waters
between 20N and 25N, along 54W and 63W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms prevail north of Grand Bahama Island to 32N,
associated to an upper trough moving through the southeast U.S.
Moderate to fresh S winds and 4 to 6 ft are evident north of the
Bahamas. Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms is active 
near 27N58W, just to the east of an upper low. Fresh to strong E 
winds and 5 to 8 ft are ongoing in this area from 25N to 30N 
between 50W and 60W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 
ft are noted elsewhere across the Atlantic. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong winds and rough
seas from 25N to 30N between 50W and 60W. These conditions will 
gradually shift westward into the early part of the week as the 
trough drifts westward. A weak cold front may approach then stall 
near the southeastern U.S. coast through Mon, and lift back north 
as warm front around the middle of the week. Expect scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western waters into 
the early part of the week.  

$$
Christensen