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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160545
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE S GULF S OF 22N 
BETWEEN 92W-96W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE 
GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL BE DISCONTINUE BY 16/0600 UTC. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-
19W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-28W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE E CONUS 
AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0300 
UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN 
MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS THEN ALONG 24N84W TO THE N COAST OF THE 
YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INLAND TO 
17N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA 
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N81W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO OVER 
CUBA E OF 83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT 
N OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE 
OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER NW MISSISSIPPI. 
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN N 
THROUGH THE E AND CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT LATE WED THROUGH 
FRI.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. 
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR 
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 20N87W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR 15N87W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE 
IMMEDIATE COAST LINES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. 
SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING 
WEEKEND. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S HAITI/SW DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC S OF 19N W OF 70W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE 
ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WED THEN INCREASING SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0300 UTC 
NEAR 32N78W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA 
NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N77W OVER 
FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS 
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N. 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS OVER THE W  
ATLC BETWEEN 63W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO 22N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 
22N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA. 
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK WED NIGHT THEN 
WILL RETURN N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU NIGHT AND MOVE INTO 
NW WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Apr-2014 05:46:08 UTC