027 
AXNT20 KNHC 290455
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jul 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 10N to 13N and east of 23W. 

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at around 5 kt. A 1012 mb low pres is noted near 
09N38W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to 
strong winds within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 05N to 12N and between 35W and 42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring
near this wave. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident near the
trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found south of 17N and west of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and
to 05N47W. The ITCZ extends from 05N47W to 05N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 05N to 11N and between 27W and
35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery in the eastern
Gulf of America and in the Bay of Campeche. High pressure over the
northern Gulf waters and lower pressures in the deep tropics
support moderate to fresh easterly winds in the Bay of Campeche,
especially east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will
develop off the Yucatan Peninsula overnight as a trough develops 
inland and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, 
high pressure will dominate the basin through Sat, supporting 
mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. The
high pressure will weaken some Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and diurnal heating supports scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles and nearby
waters. Generally drier conditions are evident over the central
and eastern Caribbean, likely associated with a dry Saharan
airmass. The subtropical ridge centered north of the islands
forces fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds over
the central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent 
scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate to locally rough seas are 
noted in these waters. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds 
and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh 
winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat. 
Strong winds will pulse off Colombia overnight through Sat as the 
high pressure builds north of the area. Generally moderate winds 
and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied by 
scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through 
the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and through the
eastern Caribbean later on Sat and Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough located between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and
divergence aloft result in a few showers north of 22N and between
57W and 67W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by a
weak high pressure system centered east of Florida. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found
south of 25N and west of 55W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is
under the influence of an extensive high pressure system located
north of the Azores. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and
moderate seas are occurring east of 30W and north of 20N. In the
rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region through Sat, 
supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas over the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may 
bring fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds north of the
Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night.

$$
Delgado