242 
AXNT20 KNHC 180518
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun May 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0420 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then curves 
southwestward to 05.5N23W, where it transitions to ITCZ, and 
continues west-southwestward to the east coast of Brazil near 
02N51. Scattered strong convection is occurring across the
nearshore waters of western Africa, north of 03N and between 03W
and 14W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed between 01N and 06.5N between 18W and 42W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 03N between 42W and
51W, and from 05N to 09.5N between 50W and 61W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward
to central Florida and then weakly across the eastern Gulf, where
a new 1017 mb high center has formed near 26N83W. The pressure
between this ridge and low pressure across central Mexico is supporting
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the south and
southwest Gulf, and moderate SE to S winds across northwest
portions. Recent satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to
locally strong E to NE winds across the waters off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 4 ft across much of the basin, and 4 to 5
ft off the NW Yucatan and across western portions. Seas are 1 to 
2 ft across the NE Gulf and along the Florida west coast. No 
convection is noted over the basin at this time, while strong 
thunderstorms continue across large portions of southern Texas 
Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico 
continues to create hazy conditions at the west-central and 
southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and 
eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and 
moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh 
to strong E winds are likely each afternoon and evening through 
Tue night, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops 
daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico will sustain hazy conditions at the west-
central and southwestern Gulf most likely through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure of 1026 mb centered near 30N44W extends a broad
ridge westward to 60W, and then become a narrow ridge westward to
central Florida. A deep-layered upper trough is over the Atlantic
along about 65W-66W and extends S-SW across the Mona Passage and
into the central Caribbean. A weak surface trough has formed in
the NE Caribbean along 63W, where the upper trough is supporting
scattered moderate to strong convection along and E of the
surface trough extending northeastward across the Leeward Islands
and into the adjacent Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds prevail across the basin east of 75W, through the Windward 
Passage, and across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 4 to 5 
ft. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere with seas of 2 to 4 ft.


For the forecast, a modest ridge will remain north of the basin
through Mon to generally maintain current conditions. Fresh to 
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during 
late afternoons and nights through the period. Moderate to fresh 
trades, rough seas and active thunderstorms will persist over the
Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun 
night. Increasing trades along with building seas are expected to
shift into the eastern part of the basin Sun night. These 
conditions will then shift westward across the central and 
southwestern basin through next week as high pressure strengthens 
north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1026 mb centered near 30N44W extends a broad
ridge westward to 60W, and then become a narrow ridge westward to
central Florida. A deep-layered upper trough is over the Atlantic
along about 65W-66W and extends S-SW across the Mona Passage and
into the central Caribbean. A surface trough continues just east
of this upper trough, extending from near 27N62W to near the
British Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate isolated strong
thunderstorms are occurring along and east of the trough to 59W,
supported by the upper trough, from the Leeward Islands north to
27N. West of the surface trough, gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds prevail, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. East of this surface
trough, the ridge is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly
trade winds from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Lesser Antilles.
Seas here are 6 to 9 ft south of 25N, and 4 to 6 ft north of 25N. An
old frontal trough is seen lingering from 31N16W to 20N37W, with 
fresh NE winds to the north of this feature, and seas 6 to 9 ft. 
Farther east, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are along 
the African west coast north of 14N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a mid to upper level trough and an
associated surface trough that extends from 26N62W to 20N65W is 
resulting in unsettled weather conditions, with moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas primarily over the waters S of about 27N 
between 58W and 64W. These conditions should gradually improve 
through early Mon as they shift ENE. Meanwhile, broad high 
pressure extending west-southwestward from the central Atlantic 
to Florida will support gentle winds south of 28N. Moderate to 
fresh northeast to east winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and 
in the Windward Passage each night into next week. In the long 
term, fresh to strong southwesterly winds and building seas are 
expected off of northeastern Florida and northeast of the Bahamas
around the middle of next week, in response to a late season cold
front that will move off the southeastern United States coast. 
This front may be accompanied by scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. Farther south, moderate to fresh northeast to east 
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage 
each night into next week.

$$
Stripling