Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 56.3W AT 01/0600 
UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM E OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 NM ESE OF SAINT 
LUCIA MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE 
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 20N20W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH 
ALONG 21W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 
THE WAVE WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED TO THE 
EAST OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N34N. THE BROAD 
AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 
30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 
33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND 
LARGELY SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS N OF 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH 
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
10N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N34W TO 04N39W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO 
04N46W TO 09N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N-11N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF 
THE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING 
OVER THE SE CONUS. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN 
GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED S-SE FROM 
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
THEN SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES 
WESTWARD ALONG 25N TO 90W. MOST EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE 
FRONT INLAND ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER A FEW 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 83W. ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT 
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS INLAND SE TEXAS 
NEAR 30N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS N OF 28N W OF 93W. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 29N88W. 
THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL 
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING E-SE 
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                       
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH 
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W...AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N77W...AND AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN 
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHERN CUBA COAST. THE ONLY 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 
12N BETWEEN 80W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL NW TO W FLOW 
IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE... 
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. FINALLY... 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF 
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...                                        
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE 
ISLAND REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. WITH THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND 
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING 
LARGELY N OF 30N THAT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
EASTWARD TO 32N76W THEN NE TO BEYOND 37N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 76W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. 
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N64W 
GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N47W THAT IS SUPPORTING A 1016 
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N46W THEN W-NW TO 28N58W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER 
PRESSURE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 41W-46W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 
49W-59W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE 
RIDGE PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF 
40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN