Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
GALE WARNING AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 23N69W TO 20N76W. N OF 27.5N WITHIN 
210 NM SE OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. N OF 
29N W OF FRONT TO 69W W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH 
OF 30N.  SOUTH OF 30N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE FRONT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 0N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THERE 
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA TO THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 05W AND 05E. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 
31N86W. VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH 10-
15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF NW OF A 
LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO 23N93W TO THE 
MEXICAN COAST NEAR LA PESCA AT 24N98W.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 20N97W TO 23N98W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS 
OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NE MEXICO...TEXAS... 
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  EXPECT THIS 
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE MOIST SE RETURN FLOW HAS 
ENHANCED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
NO NOTABLE FEATURES ARE OCCURRING TODAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN  
...AS THE EARLIER COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED.  10-
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED OVER SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS.  ELSEWHERE 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN CUBA... JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA 
...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THESE ARE IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF EASTERN 
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N 
COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING S-SW FLOW WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER SW 
CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT OVER THE NEXT DAY RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO 
REMAIN FROM PUERTO RICO TO JAMAICA TO EAST-FACING SLOPES OF 
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC.  THESE ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER 
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT 
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 23N69W TO 
20N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT NORTH OF 30N.  SOUTH OF 30N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON BOTH 
SIDES OF THE FRONT NEAR OUR NORTH BORDER. SEE ABOVE. A 1021 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N44W. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N25W TO 27N36W TO 32N48W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW 
IS CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 
28N11W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE LOW.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF 
TRINIDAD AT 9N56W WITH RIDGING OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS 
EXTEND FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 17N37W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT 
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 25N. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA