Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N20W TO 8N23W. ITCZ BEGINS 
NEAR 4N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 
33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-22W AND FROM 5N TO 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW 
OVER SE ALABAMA TO OVER THE E GULF AND IS SUPPORTING AT 19/0900 
UTC A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 
30N83W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INLAND OVER FLORIDA THEN 
RETURNING INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS TO 23N85W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR 
NAPLES OVER KEY WEST AND THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W INTO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW 
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER N FLORIDA THIS MORNING PUSHING THE COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF. BY EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE GULF. THE 
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N GULF 
TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE W TIP 
OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 
NM OF THE TROUGH. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI INCLUDING 
THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM VENEZUELA 
NEAR 10N64W ALONG 15N70W TO 16N80W COVERING THE LESSER 
ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...E CUBA AND JAMAICA. W 
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH MON MAINTAINING FRESH TO 
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVES 
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THEN NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC THROUGH 
WED. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER 
HAITI INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING HISPANIOLA 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT 
WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER E CUBA SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS 
IT MOVES INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS SUN TO TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 
MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES N OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA 
TO BEYOND 32N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N80W 
TO BEYOND 32N78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE 
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 
1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
SHIFT E THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE 
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC BY EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE COLD 
FRONT TRAILING ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 31N78W LATE 
TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA AND TO NEAR 31N76W BY 
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO E CUBA. THE LOW WILL MOVE N OF 
THE REGION AND THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 
31N70W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL 
ATLC TUE EVENING.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW