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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241118
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N63W 
TO 27N72W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N78W. 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1006 MB LOW CENTER TO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT GALE-FORCE 
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF THE 
1006 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 75W 
WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 1006 MB LOW CENTER AND THE 
FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA 
HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 75W WITHIN 150 NM TO 
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W FROM 13N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N  
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 14N 
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 4N TO 9N. IT SHOWED UP IN 
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 18N 
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD 
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF 
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W AND 8N32W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N32W TO 7N36W AND 7N43W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 
17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 
45W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA 
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING FLORIDA...INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
32N66W TO 28N69W. A SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N69W... 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF FLORIDA...TO 24N84W...INTO THE 
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 400 NM 
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 
28N72W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...25N82W...INTO THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE ALABAMA...INTO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO 25N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. A 
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N62W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 31N62W TO 27N70W...TO THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF 
FLORIDA...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N83W 
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 27N64W 24N73W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS...INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO...TO A 1022 
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N99W...INTO THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 
HOURS CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE 
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ 
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER 
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. 

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHQI...KGBK...
KGHB...KGRY...KATP...AND KVOA. 

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE 
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA. HEAVY RAIN 
IS BEING OBSERVED AT MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN 
AREA.

...FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A 
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W 
ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AND AROUND CUBA AND THE 
BAHAMAS...IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM 18N TO 
26N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
CUBA NEAR 23N83W. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST POSITION FOR THIS LOW 
CENTER WILL END UP BEING RELATED TO THE FORECAST GALE-FORCE 
WINDS. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR WIND 
SPEED AND SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AND AROUND CUBA AND THE 
BAHAMAS...IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM 18N TO 
26N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG  
28N69W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF FLORIDA...TO 
24N84W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N72W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN 
PANAMA...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W IN 
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND TO THE 
WEST OF COLOMBIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 85W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP 
OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/ 
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE STILL COVERS 
HISPANIOLA. 

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN 
LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING 
ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND  
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST 
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE 
CURRENT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS 
THAT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. 
AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.  
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW WILL START OUT ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND 
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY IN ABOUT 6 TO 12 
HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. 

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 22N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 
18N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 
FROM 18N51W TO 16N59W...TO 14N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE 
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 
32N44W TO 18N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE 
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING 
AND DISSIPATING FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 
23N29W AND 17N30W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N30W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 11:18:38 UTC