000
AXNT20 KNHC 260555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 62W, from 16N southward, moving 
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: 
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to 18N between
59W and 62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 315 nm
of the coast of South America between 48W and 61W. Isolated
moderate is from 15N southward between 60W and 71W. The tropical 
wave will move through the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. It is 
possible that the associated moisture may reach Puerto Rico and 
the Virgin Islands late on Sunday into Monday. The likelihood of 
showers and thunderstorms will increase.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
close to 11N15W, to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W, to 
05N24W and 06N41W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 60 nm
on either side of 04N05W 03N07W 03N10W 03N12W 05N13W 07N13W 09N13W
09N12W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm on either
side of the ITCZ between 29W and 36W, and between 39W and 41W.
Mostly moderate to some fresh cyclonic wind flow is within 180 nm
on either side of the tropical wave. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is along 29N/30N.

Slight to moderate seas cover the areas that are from the middle
Texas Gulf coastal waters, to the coastal waters of NE Mexico,
into the west central Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are elsewhere.
Strong SE winds are within 150 nm of the Yucatan Peninsula
between 88W and 90W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere in 
the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Dense smoke covers the inland areas from Honduras and the Gulf of
Honduras, to the Yucatan Peninsula, the northern half of
Guatemala, and the eastern half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Moderate smoke covers the areas from the northern
3/4 of Nicaragua to the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The
hazy conditions are related to agricultural fires in parts of
Mexico, and in Central America. 

A relatively weak high pressure ridge will continue to extend 
from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf into the 
upcoming week. This will maintain a weak pressure pattern over the
basin. Mostly moderate to fresh SE to S winds will exist W of 87W
through early Mon while light to gentle SE to S winds will exist 
E of 87W. The winds W of 87W will shift to W of 90W afterwards 
while winds east of 87W generally become light and variable, 
except S of 26N where they become gentle NE winds. Seas will be 
slight to moderate during the period. A cold front is expected to 
move across the NE Gulf Tue through Wed, followed by gentle to 
moderate W to NW winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the 
northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons 
and at night through the period. Hazy conditions due to 
agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western 
Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Slight seas cover much of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for 
slight to moderate seas that are in the coastal waters of northern
Colombia, and in the NW Caribbean Sea in the coastal waters of 
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong E to SE winds are within
135 nm of the coast of Honduras between 84W and 88W. Moderate to
fresh SE winds are in the rest of the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh NE winds are within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia.
Moderate NE winds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Gentle winds
are in the SW corner of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
in the remainder of the area that is from 70W eastward.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers, are from 80W eastward.

Dense smoke covers the inland areas from Honduras and the Gulf of
Honduras, to the Yucatan Peninsula, the northern half of 
Guatemala, and the eastern half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of 
southern Mexico. Moderate smoke covers the areas from the northern
3/4 of Nicaragua to the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The 
hazy conditions are related to agricultural fires in parts of 
Mexico, and in Central America. 

Relatively weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will 
maintain moderate trade winds across the basin, except for pulsing
fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night through 
Tue night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast to develop 
over the central Caribbean Mon, increasing to fresh to strong 
speeds late Mon night through late Tue night, then shifting to 
between 75W and 80W for the rest of the forecast period. A 
tropical wave presently just west of the Windward Islands will 
bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the E 
Caribbean waters tonight through Mon. Strong gusty winds and rough
seas are likely with this activity. The wave may lose definition 
as moves across the central Caribbean during mid week. Dense smoke
due to agricultural fires in Central America is likely to change 
over the Gulf of Honduras into the early part of the upcoming 
week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh NE winds are to the south of the line: 33N14W 26N25W 21N37W
16N52W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Slight seas are from 70W westward; and from 23N
northward between 40W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is close to 30N64W. One part of a 
surface trough extends from the 30N64W low pressure center, to 
35N57W. A second part of a surface trough extends from the 30N64W 
low pressure center to Puerto Rico and 17N67W. Isolated moderate 
to locally strong rainshowers are from 17N in the Caribbean Sea, 
to Puerto Rico, and northward to 31N between 50W and 70W. 

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward from 
60W eastward. A surface trough is along 31N25W 29N30W 25N40W. 
Precipitation: broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated 
moderate, are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the trough.

A weak 1012 mb low is near 30N64W, with a trough to western 
Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are N of 30N 
between 55W and 60W and also S of 28N between 57W and Dominican 
Republic. The low will continue to move generally ENE through Sun 
evening as it weakens further with a trailing trough. Otherwise, 
relatively weak high pressure will remain over the region for the 
next few days. The associated gradient will support moderate winds
and seas N of the Bahamas and off NE Florida by Mon night as the 
high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a weakening cold front that
is expected to move across the waters N of the Bahamas Tue 
through Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
front. 

$$
mt/nr