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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261143
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 17N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. A 1010 mb low
pressure center is near 09N along the tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 09N to 13N between 42W and
50W. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone for this
feature is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
04N to 12N between 08W and 20W. 

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/63W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is moving
through the area of an upper level trough and its related
cyclonic wind flow. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 12N to 20N between 54W and 65W. Isolated moderate from 12N
southward between 60W and 70W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 09N30W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that
is along the 42W/43W tropical wave, to 05N52w. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, in east-to-
west oriented lines, elsewhere, from 04N to 13N between 07W and
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving through south Texas/SE Texas/the Texas
coastal plains. Broad surface low pressure, in the form of two
surface troughs, is in the coastal waters of Texas. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong in the Texas coastal waters/
coastal plains from 25N in Mexico to 29N in Texas. scattered
moderate to isolated strong in the Gulf of Mexico from 23N to
27N between 90W and land. 

A diurnal surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from 21N southward between 91W and 93W. isolated moderate
elsewhere from 22N southward in the SW corner of the area.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
Florida Panhandle/NW Florida/the nearby coastal waters. Cyclonic
wind flow that is moving around the cyclonic center covers the
Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward between 77W and the Bahamas and 92W. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 90W
eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the southern
part of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N southward. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 70W, with
the Atlantic Ocean to Caribbean Sea trough. An upper level
trough passes through 20N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 13N65W in
the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in southern
sections of Hispaniola from 17N northward between 69W and 77W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N to 20N between 65W
and 80W. A tropical wave is along 61W/63W, in the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Upper level NW wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea,
away from the cyclonic wind flow.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.11 in Bermuda,
and 0.10 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough passes through 20N68W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 13N65W in the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in
southern sections of Hispaniola from 17N northward between 69W
and 77W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N to 20N
between 65W and 80W. A tropical wave is along 61W/63W, in the
eastern Caribbean Sea.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N wind flow will
move across the area for day one. The wind flow becomes variable
for the first half of day two, and then it becomes southerly for
the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
and for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will be moving across the
area for the next 48 hours. It is part of an Atlantic Ocean-to-
Caribbean Sea ridge. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
Florida Panhandle/NW Florida/the nearby coastal waters. Cyclonic
wind flow that is moving around the cyclonic center covers the
Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward between 77W and the Bahamas and 92W. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N
northward from 75W westward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N65W to 30N67W, 26N69W,
to 20N68W, and to 13N65W in the southeastern part of the
Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 75W/76W from Cuba to
25N. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from
20N and Cuba northward from 70W westward. A cold front/
stationary front/dissipating cold front is along 30N/32N between
60W and 80W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N50W to 29N51W and 25N56W.
A surface trough is along 32N53W to 27N63W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through
32N49W to 24N65W.  

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N34W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 23N to 32N between 25W
and 40W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 31N41W.
Convective precipitation: weakening and dissipating
precipitation/warming cloud top temperatures from 28N northward
between 38W and 41W. 

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward between Africa and 58W. A surface ridge
passes through a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near
33N29W, to 28N33W, 23N46W, and 22N58W. 

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT