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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...   

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
22N27W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N28W TO 12N29W...MOVING W AT 10 
KT. THE GOES-R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT DEPICT WARM DRY AIR IN THE 
WAVE ENVIRONMENT...ALSO CONFIRMED IN THE METEOSAT SAL AND THE 
SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO IN THE NORTHERN AND 
WESTERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE GOES-R DUST PRODUCT. 
AS A RESULT CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND NE OF THE WAVE AXIS 
AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 
21W-27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
19N48W TO 10N50W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE GOES-R SEVIRI 
AIRMASS PRODUCT DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS AT HIGH LEVELS IN THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SUBSIDENCE IS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY ALSO SHOW 
SAHARAN DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER THE 
GOES-R DUST PRODUCT SHOW MINIMAL DUST IN THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 23N71W TO 12N70W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. HIGH MIDDLE 
TO LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHILE 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N90W TO 12N87W. THE 
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE 
BUT HIGH MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVEL AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL AS WELL AS NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N21W TO 8N24W. IT THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 13N30W TO 11N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 11N37W TO 12N44W TO 08N52W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION 
OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 20W-
28W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ON THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING A 
TROUGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF AND 
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT ON THE SW 
N ATLC TO THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. FROM THERE THE 
FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM 27N82W SW TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO 24N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION IN 
THAT REGION AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...A BROAD 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE NE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW TO 
THE N AND WESTERN GULF WHERE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN BUT 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCING 
SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

DEEP LAYER TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN W OF 73W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 71W WITH HIGH MIDDLE TO LOWER 
LEVELS TRAILING MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS E OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA 
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO 
HISPANIOLA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 71W BRINGING HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FORECAST THROUGH 
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN 
CONUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT 
ALONG 30N78W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N 
OF 26N W OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 25N55W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 23N-
30N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 29N30W TO 28N37W TO 26N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING 
FROM 28N-31W BETWEEN 27W-31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Sep-2014 00:04:15 UTC