000
AXNT20 KNHC 222334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 44W from 14N 
southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 07N between 41W and 47W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of Barbados near 58W 
from 16N southward, moving westward around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 55W and 59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 73W from south of 
Hispaniola southward to near the Colombia/Venezuela border, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
evident over northern Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85.5W from the Gulf of
Honduras southward across Honduras, Nicaragua, western Costa Rica
into the East Pacific Ocean. This wave is moving westward around 5
kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from the 
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula eastward to near the Cayman 
Islands.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, then curves 
southwestward to 09N20W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from
09N20W to 07N42W, and then northwestward from 07N46W to 10N57W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 NM of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East 
Pacific monsoon trough is generating numerous heavy showers and 
thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms near Tampico, Mexico. An upper-level trough is 
supporting isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf, 
including the Florida Straits. Scattered strong convection and 
locally strong N to NE winds are occurring just to the north and 
west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a surface ridge is 
providing gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft 
for the eastern and central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE 
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters 
through the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each 
afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal 
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds and moderate seas over the central 
and western Gulf through will diminish early this week. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and slight to locally moderate seas, can be 
expected thereafter.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Caribbean Sea. A 1024 mb high near 32N75W 
continues to support a robust trade-wind regime across most of the
Caribbean Basin. Strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail
across the south-central basin. Mostly fresh E winds and seas of 
5 to 8 ft dominate the north-central and southwestern basin north 
of 11N. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring in the Gulf
of Honduras. Mainly gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell 
are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E winds 
and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades
over the central part of the basin through the week. Moderate to 
rough seas are expected within these winds. Pulsing fresh to 
strong winds are forecast in the Windward Passage tonight and 
again Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate 
seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a weak 1016 mb low 
pressure near 31N57W to 26N66W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring near and up to 130 nm north of this feature. Farther 
east, convergent southerly winds are causing similar convection 
north of 29N between 46W and 54W. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection 
in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores 
High centered north of the area near 38N31W to a 1024 mb high 
northeast of the Bahamas near 32N75W. Besides locally higher winds
and seas near the two aforementioned areas of convection, this 
ridge is sustaining gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft north of 24N between 43W and Florida/southern Georgia 
coast. Farther south from 20N to 24W between 35W and the Bahamas, 
moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas 
exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 30W and 
the Lesser Antilles, fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and 
seas at 7 to 10 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail 
elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough/low is 
forecast to drift NE over the next couple of days. Otherwise, high
pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with 
moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the 
next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. 

$$
ADAMS