259 
AXNT20 KNHC 292348
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry is centered near at 29/0000 UTC or 50 nm SE
of Tampico Mexico, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with 
gusts to 50 kt. Barry is nearing the eastern Gulf coast of Mexico.
On the forecast track, the storm is expected to make landfall 
within the tropical storm warning area in the next several hours 
and then move inland over eastern Mexico later tonight. Little change 
in strength is anticipated before Barry makes landfall, but rapid
weakening is expected to begin after the storm moves inland. Barry is 
expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states
of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 25N and west of 93W. Seas to 12 ft
are within 30 nm NE quadrant of Barry's center. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W and extends southward 
from 14N. It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 11N between 20W
and 24W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 32W from 18N 
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. A few showers is near the
wave axis from 08N to 13N between 30W and 35W. 

A third Atlantic tropical wave axis is noted along 56W from 
14.5N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Convection is
limited near the wave axis. 

A well-defined tropical wave continues to move westward at 10 to
15 kt across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis extends from the
Mona Passage to western Venezuela, where it is enhancing some 
convective activity. Once again, scatterometer data indicate the
wind shift associated with the wave axis, with moderate to fresh
winds on either side of it.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N16W and 
continues W, then SW to near 06N39W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N39W to 04N50W. Convection is limited.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on 
Tropical Storm Barry located about 85 nm SE of Tampico, Mexico.

Elsewhere outside of the tropical cyclone, a ridge dominates the
Gulf of America region. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and T.S. Barry supports an area of fresh to locally strong SE 
winds over the Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data also indicate 
an area of fresh to strong SE to S winds off the coast of S Texas
and NE Mexico, likely associated with the convection there. Gentle
to moderate easterly winds are seen across the remainder of the 
Gulf. Seas are to 8 ft in the NE quadrant of Barry. Slight to 
moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting mainly the 
southern parts of the N Gulf states and NE Mexico. Showers and 
thunderstorms are also flared-up over Florida. Gusty winds to 
gale force could be associated with the thunderstorms. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Barry is near 21.2N 96.9W at 5 PM 
EDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 1006 mb. Barry will move inland and weaken to a tropical 
depression near 22.0N 97.9W Mon morning, inland to 22.8N 98.8W 
Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Otherwise, a surface 
ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early this 
week before retreating eastward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please 
see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. 

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low continues to support fresh to strong trade winds over the 
south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the 
remainder of the east and central Caribbean, including the Lesser
Antilles. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the lee of Cuba,
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds 
are noted. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean off 
the coast of Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except in the lee
of Cuba, and in the vicinity of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua 
where slight seas prevail. An upper-level low spinning over the 
central Bahamas is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms 
over parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E 
Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades and 
rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through 
the week. Winds will occasionally pulse to near-gale force off 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the 
Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more 
details. 

High pressure and its associated ridge dominates the entire Atlantic
forecast area, with a 1023 mb center located near 29N63W, and 
another center of 1021 mb situated NE of the Azores. This system
has weakened since yesterday as a frontal boundary reaches the
Azores. Moderate to fresh trades are observed along the southern
periphery of the ridge S of 20N and W of 45W, while moderate to 
locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic based on satellite derived wind data. Gentle to moderate
winds are observed N of 20N. Seas are in general moderate. As
previously mentioned, an upper-level low centered over the central
Bahamas is promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms over 
the waters W of 70W, including the Bahamas, and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge 
will prevail across the region through late in the week. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. 
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons 
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
GR