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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 232326
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL 
NEAR 11N16W AND TERMINATES NEAR 10N20W. THE ITCZ REACHES FROM 
NEAR 10N20W TO 02N30W AND TERMINATES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE 
AMAZON RIVER NEAR 00N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 
15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS SHIFTING WEST THROUGH 90W NORTH OF 
25N...FOLLOWING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT 
MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED 
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
HAS BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND 
AND WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS 
FROM BUOYS AND OIL RIGS ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE 
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE BASIN THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW 
SETTING UP OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN NEARLY 
CLOUD FREE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT 
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN 
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE SATURDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE BASIN IS MAINTAINING 
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA AND ABC ISLANDS WHERE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED. A THIN 
CANOPY OF CIRRUS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCED BY 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PANAMA AND ACROSS 
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...SPECIFICALLY LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND ARE STARTING TO IMPACT 
COASTAL AREAS FROM CARTAGENA COLOMBIA THROUGH LAKE MARACAIBO IN 
VENEZUELA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
WITHIN 150 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THIS 
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG A STALLED SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS NW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. UPPER FORCING RELATED TO AN 
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET EXTENDING NW OF HISPANIOLA OVER 
CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION 
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN 
CUBA AND JAMAICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS 
EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 
SOMEWHAT LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REPEATING OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE TRAILING END OF A 
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL 
DRIFT TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL 
COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 
LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND INLAND THUNDERSTORMS 
BY SUNDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD 
OVER THE NW ATLANTIC...REACHING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO AROUND 27N 
WEST OF 70W. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED SURFACE 
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO 
NW HAITI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH. 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN LARGE AREAS OF  
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH N OF 
25N BETWEEN 70W AND 40W. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEST 
OF 70W. A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE 
WATERS NORTH OF 25N THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE 
RIDGING. THIS WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N W OF 60W 
THIS WEEKEND. 

FARTHER EAST...ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REACHING FROM 32N35W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AXIS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT AS NOTED BY ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE 
NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NAMELY SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 35W. 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED 
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW IS NOTED 
OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF 35W TO THE 
COAST OF AFRICA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS NOTED NORTH OF 
10N. MINIMAL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD 
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN



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