000
AXNT20 KNHC 071818
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed May 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15.5W and 
extends southwestward to 01N28W to 02N32W. The ITCZ continues 
from 02N32W to 06N42W to 04.5N51W. Scattered moderate convection 
is ongoing from 00N to 03.5N between 16W and 26W, from 01.5N to 
08N between 15W and 22W, from 00N to 05N between 31W and 38W, and
from 06N to 09N between 42W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface ridge extends across the southeastern United States
from the Atlantic while a broad area of low pressure over east-
central Mexico covers the western half of the basin. The resultant
pressure gradient between these two features is supporting fresh 
to strong SE winds W of 88W and gentle to moderate SE winds 
elsewhere. In the northern Gulf, a stationary front extending from
Panama City, Florida to southern Louisiana is generating 
numerous heavy showers and tstms mainly north of 27N between 88W
and 94.5W. Resent scatterometer data depicted gale to storm force
winds mainly off the coast of Louisiana to 28N in association to
the convection. Outside of convection, seas are 5 to 9 ft W of 
88W and 2 to 5 ft E of 88W, except 3 ft or less over the eastern 
Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the SE United States and low pressure over Mexico will 
support fresh to locally strong winds over the W half of the 
basin. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will
diminish across the basin Thu as the next front approaches, 
currently stalled just inland over SE Texas. The front will move 
across the western zones Thu night, reaching from SE Louisiana to 
Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri, from the western Florida Panhandle 
to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat, then from the Florida
Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sun. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 
conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest 
reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad area of low pressure SSE of Bermuda is allowing the
continuation of a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean,
which is resulting in gentle to moderate trade winds across most 
of the Caribbean, except for localized fresh winds near the Gulf 
of Honduras, through the Windward Passage, and the lee side of 
Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin, except 4 
to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage. 
Otherwise, isolated showers are occurring over the NE Caribbean 
due to the proximity of a surface trough from the east, and in the
SW Caribbean near and along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 
pulse north of Honduras, fresh to strong speeds nightly through 
Fri night. Winds will pulse to fresh nightly near the Windward 
Passage. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are
expected over the remainder of the basin through Fri, including 
in the Tropical N Atlantic, before increasing slightly this 
weekend. Winds will start to increase to fresh in the central 
Caribbean and off Colombia Fri night, then to fresh to strong 
speeds Sat through the remainder of the upcoming weekend as the 
pressure gradient tightens. Unsettled weather is expected to 
continue over the eastern Caribbean through at least Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a 1014 mb low pressure centered 
near 27N65W with associated trough and 1034 mb high pressure 
centered over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally 
strong northeast to east winds and moderate to rough seas north 
and northeast of the low. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are 
also associated with the low and affecting mainly the waters north
of 23.5N between 55W and 66.5W. Another surface trough east of 
the Leeward Islands is supporting similar shower activity from 15N
to 23N between 50W and 61W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge 
covers the remainder central and eastern subtropical waters with a
pair of remnant frontal troughs north of 21.5N between 12W and 
30W. Aside from the area of low pressure SSE of Bermuda mentioned 
above, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, except locally 
fresh near the frontal troughs, with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a low
pressure centered near 27N65W with associated trough and high 
pressure centered over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to
locally strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas north 
and northeast of the low center. These marine conditions will 
continue to affect the NE waters on Thu before diminishing by Fri.
The low pressure will meander between 65W and 70W over the next 
couple of days, and open up into a trough by early Sat. A 
stationary front along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. 
coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front on Thu, 
then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the week and 
into the upcoming weekend. 

$$
KRV