357 
AXNT20 KNHC 190509
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon May 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has come off the coast of West Africa earlier
today. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 10N and along  
18W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
02N to 12N between 15W and 21W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ is noted W of the
tropical wave near 05N20W to 00N49W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection 
is noted within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward
to the eastern Gulf. The pressure between this ridge and lower
pressure across the western Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh 
SE winds across the Gulf waters W of 87W. Moderate seas prevail in
this area, while slight seas are noted E of 87W. Otherwise, smoke from 
agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico continues to create 
hazy conditions at the west-central and southwestern Gulf, 
including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high pressure
lower pressure in Texas and in eastern Mexico will maintain 
moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western 
Gulf through Tue. E winds will pulse fresh to strong along and 
just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening 
through the period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.
Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will 
continue to maintain hazy sky conditions across the west central 
and SW Gulf through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A mid to upper-level trough interacting with a surface trough 
analyzed NE of Puerto Rico is aiding in the development of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SE Caribbean S of
16N and E of 66W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central
and eastern Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh NE 
winds are also across the Windward Passage. Seas basin- wide are
slight to moderate. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across 
the basin E of 75W through Tue. The surface trough NE of Puerto 
Rico will weaken and drift NW during the next few days, and 
gradually allow high pressure to strengthen north of the basin. 
Look for increasing trades and building seas across the eastern 
part of the basin beginning Tue night, expanding westward to the 
central part of the basin by around midweek, and to most of the 
western Caribbean starting Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep-layered low pressure extends from 27N63W across Puerto Rico 
and into the NE Caribbean, and is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms S of 27N between 55W and 62W. An associated surface
trough also persists in this same area. A 1025 mb high centered 
near 29N39W extends a broad ridge across much of the Atlantic. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across much of the 
tropical Atlantic while N to NE winds of the same magnitude are 
between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate
or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the middle to upper-level low 
pressure will gradually weaken through Tue as it shifts eastward, 
allowing for the surface trough to weaken, and leading to a 
decreasing trend in the showers and thunderstorms. High pressure 
extending from the central Atlantic west southwestward to central 
Florida will support light to gentle winds over most of the area W
of 63W through the period. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will 
pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night 
for the next few days. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and building
seas are expected over the NW portion of the area and northeast 
of the Bahamas Wed, ahead of a late season cold front moving off 
the southeastern United States coast Wed night. The front will 
reach from near 31N75W to the NW Bahamas by late Thu, then weaken 
as it reaches from near 31N66W to just E of the central Bahamas by
late Fri. Fresh W to NW winds will follow the front through Thu 
night.

$$
ERA