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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290515
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
5N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 19W-
48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 35N81W 
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AT UPPER 
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH 
GULF STATES WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINLY N OF 24N. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE 
HIGH WILL CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
20N72W TO 12N85W. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 16N88W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT 
ALONG EACH BOUNDARIES. TRADE WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL AHEAD OF 
THE FRONTS WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS NOTICED BEHIND 
THE FRONTS. AT UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE FRONTS AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MERGE 
WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCING CONVECTION. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE 
WITH A COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DRIFT E ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THE FIRST ONE 
EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 30N61W WHILE THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 
20N72W TO 42N51W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 24N30N 
BETWEEN 57W-67W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 19N-26N 
BETWEEN 40W-46W. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N38W 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER N OF 27N. A 984 MB SURFACE LOW IS AT 
ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE NW AFRICA COAST NEAR 36N10W. THIS SYSTEM 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 29N AND PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS 
MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MERGE AND MOVE E ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Nov-2014 05:15:16 UTC