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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 252354

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


A tropical wave has been introduced to the 1800 UTC analysis. The
wave's axis extends from 17N19W to 10N19W. The wave coincides with
an inverted trough at 700 mb as noted in global model streamlines
and a moisture surge is observed in its environment as depicted on
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along the southern portion of the wave
mainly south of 15N between 18W-24W. 

A tropical wave prevails in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 18N31W to 10N32W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the
past 12 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb
low/trough as depicted in the global models. No deep convection is
observed at this time as the wave remains in an area where Saharan
dust and dry air prevails.

A tropical wave in the west-central Atlantic with axis extending
from 22N59W to 11N60W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. This wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No deep convection is observed
at this time as the wave remains in an area where Saharan dust and
dry air prevails.


The Monsoon Trough begins west of a tropical wave near 15N21W to
10N30W to 09N37W. The ITCZ begins near 09N37W to 06N58W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails within 120 nm south of the Monsoon
Trough between 18W-38W.



An upper-level low is centered over the east Gulf near 27N85W
extending its trough to over southeast Louisiana. At the surface,
a 1015 mb low is centered near 29N90W with surface trough
extending from the low to 27N84W. These features are generating
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the basin
north of 23N between 84W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate cyclonic flow mainly north of 27N while a moderate
southerly flow prevails south of 27N. Expect for the surface low
and trough to dissipate within the next 24 hours. A thermal trough 
will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each
evening through midweek.


An inverted upper-level trough extends across the western portion
of the basin supporting isolated convection mainly west of 78W. To
the east, Saharan dust and dry air dominates the area inhibiting
significant convection. Diurnal heating and the proximity of a
surface trough supports isolated convection across eastern Cuba,
western Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage. The Monsoon Trough
extends over Panama supporting isolated convection across the
southern Caribbean mainly south of 11N. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the whole basin. Expect within the
next 24 hours for a tropical wave to move across the eastern
portion of the basin. Isolated convection is possible with this
feature. Little change is expected elsewhere.


Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are over the island at this
time. This activity will dissipate overnight. Convection is
expected once again over the next 24 hours as a tropical wave


Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. A surface trough extends across
southern Bahamas to northeast Cuba with isolated convection
south of 23N between 73W-77W. To the east, another surface trough
extends from 30N66W to 31N62W with isolated convection. A surface
ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1030
mb high centered near 42N33W. Expect for the surface ridge to
persist through the next 24 hours. The surface trough over the
Bahamas will continue moving west with convection.

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