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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE 
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND 
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 
06N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF 
THE EQUATOR AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 
07N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W N-NE TO OVER THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 35N90W. WHILE MOSTLY MODERATE TO 
OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT 
REMAINS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 28N97W TO NEAR 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE... 
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO EAST-CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BY 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS INTRODUCING ANOTHER 
ROUND OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE FORCE 
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF 
WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN W-SW TO A BROAD BASE 
OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS MORE 
PLENTIFUL HOWEVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST 
WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH 
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST MOVES 
E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING 
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL 
STABILITY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM 
32N59W SW TO 29N70W TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE 
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Mar-2015 17:50:51 UTC