624 
AXNT20 KNHC 040815
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun May 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15.5W and extends south-southwestward to 
04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to near the coast of Brazil 
at 01N51W. Widely isolated to scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 07N between 18W and 41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A slow moving cold front extending from the western Florida 
Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico has widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms north of 24N and ahead of it. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the basin, except locally fresh near the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 2 to 4 ft west of the front,
3 to 4 ft near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and 3 ft or less
elsewhere. Light smoke from agricultural and forest fires over 
southern Mexico cover the SW Gulf and central ahead of the front.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
basin, locally moderate to fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula. The 
front will reach from northern Florida to near western Bay of 
Campeche this evening, then stall and weaken from near Sarasota, 
Florida to the central Gulf at 27N90W Mon morning. Gentle to 
moderate winds will dominate the basin through early Mon, fresh to
strong at night near the northern Yucatan, increasing to moderate
to fresh over the western zones by Mon evening as high pressure 
builds over the SE United States, then fresh to strong there Mon 
night through mid-week. Winds will pulse at moderate to fresh in 
the Straits of Florida through mid-week, and be gentle to moderate
in the NE Gulf throughout the next several days. Another weak 
front may reach the NW Gulf late Wed night or early Thu. Smoke 
from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 
conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest 
reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, otherwise gentle 
to moderate trades prevail per overnight ASCAT scatterometer data,
except over the SW basin where light winds are present. Seas are 
2 to 5 ft. No significant convection is occurring in the basin. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 
pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Tue 
night, Wed night and Thu night. Unsettled weather is expected to 
continue over most of the eastern Caribbean through the remainder 
of the weekend and well into the week. Gentle to moderate trades 
and slight to moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the
basin through the period, including in the Tropical N Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
The gradient between a trough and deep-layer low that extends 
north of 27N near 55W and high pressure over the western Atlantic 
is allowing for fresh to locally strong northeast winds and 
moderate seas north of 27N and east of 60W. Just to the south, a
related 1014 mb low is analyzed near 22.5N50.5W with a trough 
extending from the low to 20N49.5W to 17N55.5W. Any nearby 
convection has dissipated. The winds from 25N to 29N between 55W
and 56W are generating seas of 6 to 8 ft. Offshore Florida, 
southerly winds have increased to fresh to locally strong in 
advance of a cold front and preceding squall line over the SE 
United States. Elsewhere, ridging dominates the basin, anchored by
a 1027 mb high pressure near 37N49W, supporting gentle to 
moderate trades. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, marine conditions associated with
the broad trough in the SW N Atlantic will gradually shift 
westward going into the early part of the week as the trough 
drifts westward. A weak cold front may approach then stall near 
the southeastern U.S. coast later today through Mon, and lift back
north as warm front around the middle of the week. Expect 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western 
waters through the rest of the weekend and into the early part of 
the week. 

$$
Lewitsky