900 
AXNT20 KNHC 082337
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 09 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis has its axis along 56W
south of 17N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated 
showers are near the wave from 06N to 08N between 54W and 
57W. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms are ahead of the 
wave from 07N to 09N between 57W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues 
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 07N30W to 08N40W to 09N45W and to the coast of 
Fresh Guiana near 06N54W. Numerous moderate convection is within 
120 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-32W, within 120 nm north
of the ITCZ between 45W-54W and within 60 nm north of the 
ITCZ between 32W-38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Atlantic high pressure extends westward to across the central
Gulf. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail E of 90W, 
while moderate to fresh southeast winds are noted west of 90W. 
Slight seas at 3 ft or less are noted over the eastern gulf, 
while moderate seas 3 to 5 ft prevail across the western basin. 
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail E of 90W, while 
moderate to fresh southeast winds are seen west of 90W. Slight 
seas at 3 ft or less are noted over the eastern gulf, while 
moderate seas 3 to 5 ft prevail across the western basin. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge 
into the eastern Gulf, building modestly westward into the 
central Gulf through the week. Moderate to fresh northeast to 
east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a 
trough develops daily and moves westward, with moderate to fresh 
southeast winds elsewhere in the western and south- central 
Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central 
Atlantic and lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh
to strong trades S of 18N over the central Caribbean between 70W
and 80W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft, except 9 to 10 ft offshore of
NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across 
the basin along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate east 
to southeast winds continue across the northwestern Caribbean.

A surface trough extends from Virgin Islands to 13N67W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

Scattered moderate to strong convection south of 16N and between
77W and the coast Central America is due to a nearby mid to 
upper-level trough.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will prevail
through the week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong 
trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central 
basin, spreading westward through the week, except in the SW 
Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Winds will pulse to fresh 
to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening 
hours. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will 
build to rough with the increasing winds, as well as in the 
Tropical N Atlantic by early Mon continuing through the week.

Of Note: A potential for significant rain continues into early 
next week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast 
Honduras as the upper-level trough lingers across the region
maintaining the possibility of unsettled weather to develop 
across the area. Computer model guidance differs on the exact 
timing and location of the heaviest rainfall at this time. Please
refer to your local meteorological office for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 56W. UWM CIMSS SAL analysis 
suggests Saharan Air and associated suspended dust dominates the 
Atlantic trade wind zone south of 21N from the coast of Africa 
to the Lesser Antilles. 

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, the entire basin is dominated 
by a broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1030 mb high 
analyzed well north of the area near 36N21W. Fresh to strong 
trades prevail south of 21N, from the Cabo Verdes to the Lesser 
Antilles, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Due to the presence of the 
SAL, no convection is noted outside that near the ITCZ. W of 55W,
fresh trades remain south of 22N, while anticyclonic winds are 
occurring within the ridge axis, becoming moderate to fresh S to 
SW winds north of 27N and west of 65W. Seas are generally 3 to 5 
ft west of 55W. Isolated showers moving westward are north of 
about 15N and west of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build 
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and South Florida through Tue, 
then weaken slightly thereafter. Expect fresh to strong winds to 
pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola, with 
pulsing moderate to fresh winds off northeast Florida and 
elsewhere south of 22N through the early part of the week until 
the high weakens. Winds may briefly increase to fresh to strong 
off northeast Florida Mon night. 

$$
Aguirre