859 
AXNT20 KNHC 010550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave was repositioned to near 53W from
20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is present from 17N to 19N between 52W and 54W.

A weak eastern Caribbean tropical wave was relocated to near  
65W from the Virgin Islands southward to northeastern Venezuela,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely Scattered showers are 
noted near the Virgin Islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is evident near 80W from near
the Cayman islands southward through Panama into the East 
Pacific. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
occurring east of Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania just south of Nouakchott, then turns southwestward 
through 15N20W to 09N28W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward 
from 09N28W to 06N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south
of the monsoon trough from 06N to 09N east of 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diurnal surface trough is coupling with divergent flow aloft to
cause scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms 
at the southern Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough over 
Florida is triggering widely scattered showers off Naples. 
Otherwise, a 1018 mb high over the northwestern Gulf is dominating
most of the Gulf with light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas, 
except moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 
ft at the eastern Bay of Campeche and Strait of Florida.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate 
the Gulf through early next week, supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are expected to increase along and just inland 
from the northeastern Gulf coast this weekend as a weak low 
pressure along a weakening cold front stalls across northern 
Florida. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge near 26N continues to support a trade-wind
pattern across the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the lee of Cuba
and near Gonave Island, Haiti. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong
ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the south-
central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft 
seas dominate the northwestern and eastern basin, and waters off
Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin, including 
the Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to allow for
fresh winds and rough seas over the central basin through Sat, 
with winds pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. Generally 
moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave 
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, and likely 
gusty winds, is expected to move through the tropical Atlantic 
waters Fri through early Sat and through the eastern Caribbean 
later on Sat, and across the central Caribbean through Sun. 
Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas 
early next week following the tropical wave over the central 
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for convection in the Atlantic Basin. A subtropical
ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1029 mb high near 31N43W 
to beyond northern Florida. These features are supporting light 
to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft north of 27N between 35W and
the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the south from 11N to 27N
between 35W and Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic west of
35W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge and related 
high will dominate the weather pattern through early next week, 
supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas over the western Atlantic. The northern portion of a tropical
wave may bring moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and rough 
seas north of the Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night, then to 
the waters north of Hispaniola and east of the southern Bahamas 
through early next week. 

$$

Chan