294 
AXNT20 KNHC 210520
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28.5W, to the south of 12N, 
moving west at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ and along the
wave axis, particularly from 02N to 06N between 20W and 30W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 10N14W 
and extends southwestward to near 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from
07N19W to 05N25.5W. It resumes W of the tropical wave near 04N31W
to 01N49W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, isolated to scattered moderate convection is depicted along
the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate E
to SE winds W of 86W with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for fresh to
strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle variable 
winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail E of 86W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted over the west-central Gulf ahead of a cold
front that is approaching the coast of Texas. Smoke intensity has
increased to medium over the western Gulf, while light smoke 
density prevail across the rest of the basin. 

For the forecast, a weak ridge extends from the Atlantic just E 
of the Bahamas W-NW into the eastern Gulf tonight. The resultant 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over 
central Texas and Mexico will maintain moderate winds across the 
basin ahead of an approaching cold front. The weak cold front will
sink southward into the northern Gulf tonight, stall, then lift 
north and dissipate through Wed night. Another weak front will 
sink into the NE Gulf Thu through Thu night then dissipate. High 
pressure is expected to move into the NE Gulf this coming weekend 
and dominate the basin. Winds may freshen in the western Gulf 
starting Sat night. E winds will pulse fresh to locally strong 
along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and 
evening through the period as a trough develops daily and drifts 
westward at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern 
Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the 
western Gulf through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered just E of the Bahamas. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the 
Colombia low is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds 
across the east and central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E to
SE winds across the NW Caribbean, except in the Gulf of Honduras 
where fresh to strong winds are present. Seas are mainly in the 3
to 6 ft range, except for the offshore waters of Colombia and 
Venezuela where seas are 5 to 7 ft, and in the lee of Cuba where 
seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are occurring over northern Colombia and NW 
Venezuela. A few thunderstorms are depicted south of Haiti. 

Of note: Casablanca Weather Station in Havana sets new May Temperature
Record. On Tue afternoon, the weather station recorded a maximum
temperature of 38.0 degrees Celsius, setting a new record for the
month of May. This surpasses the previous record of 37.3 degrees
Celsius, which was set on May 19, 2024. Abundant sunshine and S winds
helped the temperature to rise. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered just E of the 
Bahamas along 70W extends a ridge NW to coastal Georgia, while a 
weak trough persists from 23N64W northeastward into the central 
Atlantic. This pattern will shift slowly eastward through late Wed
before the trough exits the region to the NE late Thu, allowing 
high pressure across the NE Atlantic to build a narrow ridge north
of the Caribbean basin Thu night through the weekend. Moderate to
fresh winds in the central Caribbean will gradually strengthen 
and pulse to fresh to strong tonight through the upcoming weekend 
as they gradually expand westward to Nicaragua. Winds will pulse 
to fresh to strong across the Gulf of Honduras through the period.
Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic 
will freshen by the end of the week into the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1017 mb high pressure is located NE of the Bahamas near 
24N69W. A frontal trough extends from near 31N60W to 29N64W. A 
wide band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the trough 
affecting most of the waters N of 22N between 52W and 63.5W. High
pressure located SE of the Azores near 35N30W dominates the 
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds
are present east of 40W, while fresh to strong winds prevail north
of 18N and east of 23W. Gentle to moderate winds prevailing 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range W of 60W, and 5 to 8 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure centered just E 
of the Bahamas along 70W extends a ridge NW to coastal Georgia, 
while a weak trough persists from 23N64W northeastward into the 
central Atlantic near 31N55W, and will shift slowly eastward 
through late Wed. A frontal trough from near 31N60W to 29N66W will
shift eastward through Wed night with moderate to fresh westerly 
winds ahead of it. A pair of frontal troughs will move eastward 
across the northern waters later in the week and upcoming weekend.
The pressure gradient south of the high pressure, and 22N, will 
strengthen by the end of the week allowing winds to freshen there.

$$
KRV