000
AXNT20 KNHC 241057
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep-layered trough 
extending southwestward from the Windward Passage to near Costa 
Rica/Panama continues to slowly lift northeastward over Hispaniola.
With both divergent winds aloft and abundant moisture still over 
Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, sporadic 
deep convection are expected near these locations through today. 
Latest model guidance still suggests the heaviest rainfall to be 
near southern Dominican Republic. Residents in the above locations
should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash 
flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more 
specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located near 52W, from 12N southward and 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen from 08N to 10N between 51W and 53W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Senegal 
coast near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to 05N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N22W to 3.5N30W to 04N40W to 05N45W. From 03N to
06N between 37W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh winds off the north
coast of the Yucatan peninsula, between a trough emerging off the
west coast of the peninsula and higher pressure over the eastern
Gulf. Other scatterometer data and buoy observations indicated
gentle to moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft combined seas, except
for light breezes over the far eastern Gulf closer to the high
pressure. Recent observations also confirm hazy conditions persist
over the southwest Gulf, attributed to lingering smoke from
agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Visibility has improved
over the northwest Gulf, however. No other significant weather is
observed at this time.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin 
through the end of the week, with an occasional weak trough over 
the southwest Gulf. This pattern will support moderate to fresh 
winds and moderate seas over the western Gulf, and generally light
to gentle breezes and slight seas over the eastern Gulf through 
early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Significant 
Rainfall Event. 

A surface trough reaches from eastern Cuba to south of Jamaica. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds were 
pulsing over the Bay Islands off the the north- central coast of 
Honduras, embedded in an area of moderate SE to E winds across the
remainder of the Gulf of Honduras where combined seas are likely 
3 to 5 ft. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are also noted 
across the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle breezes and slight
seas are noted across the remainder of the basin, where the weak
trough over eastern Cuba and Jamaica is breaking up the pressure
gradient. A vigorous but small area of thunderstorms is active off
the far southeast coast of the Dominican Republic, associated with
the upper trough described in the Special Features. A few showers
and thunderstorms are also active north of the monsoon trough off
eastern Panama.

Smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in 
Central America persists across the Gulf of Honduras, and offshore
from Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Latest observations reveal reduced
visibilities of 4 to 6 nm.

For the forecast, the strong deep-layered trough across the Caribbean
from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua will lift out to the NE through
late Sat. This feature will support active weather across the
central portions of the basin, which will gradually shift NE and
into the Atlantic through tonight. A broad and weak trough will
prevail across the nort

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp deep-layered trough extends southward from west of Bermuda
across 31N70W and the central Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba,
providing divergent flow to its east. Meanwhile, a surface trough
near the southeast Bahamas is maintaining a moist southerly flow.
This combination is triggering scattered moderate convection from
20N to 25N between 65W and 70W, including the southeast Bahamas, 
and Turks and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A surface ridge associated with a 1021 mb high near 30N47W and a
1021 mb high near 27N33W is supporting gentle winds and seas of 3
to 4 ft north of 24N between 25W and the Florida/Georgia coast,
except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas from
20N to 27N between 62W and 70W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft 
exist north of 13N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W. For the
tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N/24N between 25W/30W and the 
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft 
seas are present. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds
with seas at 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the scattered showers and 
thunderstorms along with fresh winds and building seas will 
persist today near a developing low pressure area roughly half way
between Bermuda and Hispaniola. Expect fresh to strong winds and 
rough seas near the low pressure through Sat as it makes its 
closest point of approach of 210 nm to the southeast of Bermuda 
Sat afternoon before weakening as it moves slowly into the north 
central Atlantic through the early part of next week. Farther 
west, weak high pressure will build between Bermuda and the 
central Bahamas Sat into Sun following the low pressure. Looking 
ahead, moderate winds and seas are possible north of the Bahamas 
and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts
eastward ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast
U.S. coast by mid week. 

$$
Christensen